The Big Ten is Who We Thought They Were

First of all, I want to say that I am so proud of this team and happy that we have won our first outright title in 10 years. It has been long overdue. Of all the teams that we have had during that time span, I am surprised that this team was able to grab the conference crown when more talented Spartan teams could not. The only logical explanation is that the Big Ten is not as strong as it usually is.

Remember the 2005 team? Paul Davis, Maurice Ager, Shannon Brown, and Drew Neitzel? They couldn't get it done. They finished 13-3 in the conference, two games behind Wisconsin. Two games!

What about last year's team? Don't you think that we would be better off if we were able to get Drew Neitzel and Drew Naymick back in exchange for our three current freshmen? Well, that team didn't even come close. They finished 4 games out of first place.

So what's different? Why has the 2009 team whizzed through the conference schedule and have a chance to win the league by a four-game margin? Is it because they are that much better than the other teams we have had? I don't think so.

Rather than just go off of what I think is true, I decided to look into some statistics to see if they backed me up. I used Pomeroy Ratings to support my case, and I must be honest, some of his data is way too complicated so I excluded some of it. Using the data, I was able to compare this year’s team to the last 5 Michigan State teams. If you look at the table below, it is pretty easy to see the difference between this year’s team and the previous 5.

First, let's look at our current team's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. As you can see, it ranks last among all Spartan teams since 2005. This is not that surprising as we have struggled offensively all year. The next column shows the team's adjusted defensive efficiency where a lower value actually means that a team plays better defense. This seems to be our team's strong point as they only trail the 2007 team in that category. That team finished 8-8 in the conference, however, despite a better offensive rating.

Next let's look how our team compares to the last 6 Big Ten champions:

Using the Ken Pomeroy rating, it’s fitting that only the 2006 Ohio State team ranks lower. Our offense, again, is the worst and our defense is at best, average. Also similar to the Ohio State team of 2006, we played easier teams as their strength of schedules (SOS) are also the two lowest.

Lastly, the argument that most people give for why they think the Big Ten is better this year is because of the success that perennial bottom-dwellers Northwestern and Penn State are having. So, instead of focusing solely on the leaders, I took a look at the entire Big Ten. Luckily, Pomeroy averages the Pomeroy ratings of each team within a conference to come up with an overall conference average. The table below features these values.

As you can see, only 2004 had a worse overall average rating, thus defying the arguments of even the biggest Big Ten fans. If, however, you get exclude Indiana and Iowa, who are both horrible, the conference rating goes up to 0.87, which would be at least average.

In the end, we should just be happy that we have won a Big Ten title. Like this past Tuesday, a win is a win, and a championship is a championship. But, we need to realize that our conference isn’t exactly your mom and dad’s Big Ten.

Michigan State Basketball Notes

1) Travis Walton Selected For Seth Davis's All-Glue Team - Find the article here. Finally some recognition for T-Walt. Maybe Walton will win Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. Chris Kramer was not on Davis's list.

2) Goran Suton One of Eight on Cover of SportsIllustrated - They picked MSU to make the final 8. That's funny since they picked Purdue to win the Big Ten and they aren't in their great eight.

3) Izzo Punks Out - Not going to shave his head until after the tournament. That's not cool. Why not wait to do it until it all falls out?

4) Izzo Now Reconsidering Big Ten Celebration - Initially I was thrilled when I heard Izzo say that there wasn't going to be a celebration on Sunday because he had learned from his mistakes in the past. Well, apparently he hasn't, because he now "may" have some kind of ceremony after the game. Well, you better win the game then coach.

Other Michigan State News

1) Mushin Muhammed's House on Ebay - It looks like the economy is affecting everyone. He listed it for only 1.9 million.

Mailbag

Exerpts from an email I received:

Once you watch the replay, you'll see that the ref walked into MSU's huddle and baited Izzo into that technical ("I'm tired of you effing screwing me" is what Coach said).

The loudest I ever remember the Brez was the Kentucky game in 2000 during winter break, with no Izzone. 46-45, MSU.

I'll never understand how they lost to Wright State on Dec 30, 1999, either, but I know why they lost to Hawaii -- Leg cramps. That's why we lost to Hawaii and why we lost to Gonzaga in 3OT after we beat Chaminade, too.

Eric, CA

1) Thanks for the insight on Izzo's technical. I saw the replay and I think you are 100% correct. That referee should receive some kind of punishment.

2) I remember the Kentucky game, but unlike you, I wasn't there. All I know is that Assembly Hall was rocking. I was really impressed.

3) We should never lose to Hawaii. I don't care if our players are forced to go murderball and play in wheelchairs. That leg cramp excuse was over played.

DVD Giveaway

I'll be giving away another "The Greatest Stories of Michigan State Basketball" DVD for Sunday's game against Purdue. The correct prediction of the winner and closest margin of victory will take the DVD home. Please email me or post a comment to the website to be entered.

Tomorrow - Purdue Preview #2

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MSU Basketball Notes

MSU Basketball Notes:
1) Spartans Ranked #9 in Both Polls - MSU only slipped one spot after their horrible loss at home to Northwestern and a come from behind win at Ohio State. We couldn't have asked for more than that.
2) Tom Izzo Thinks the Big Ten is Legit - In the Big Ten teleconference Monday, Tom Izzo stated that the conference is the toughest in the nation when examined from top to bottom. Full story here. Bo Ryan says "A lot depends on how the media spins it. Here in the Midwest, it's easy to see that the Big Ten is a pretty tough contest." I agree. Our conference has one miserable team, but all of the others could beat any team in the country given they have a good night.
3) Sit Down Big Fella' - A writer for the State News calls for Raymar Morgan to sit down until he is fully healthy. The link can be found here. The article is best summarized by this excerpt: "If Morgan’s presence was indispensable..., I would feel differently about the matter." I completely agree.

Around the Big Ten
1) Purdue Heads to Wisconsin - The Badgers are coming off of a four game losing streak, but they are always hard to beat at home. That's why they are favored by one point over the Boilermakers. I'd take the Badgers at home.
2) Kevin Coble - Was named the Co-Big Ten Player of the Week. Was there any question?

That's Ridiculous
1) Kevin Coble Sharing the Big Ten Player of the Week Honor - The powers that be said that Jamelle Cornley of Penn State had just as good of a week. Apparently the conference believes that Coble's 31 points in the Breslin center and 21 in Ann Arbor is equal to two double-doubles against Michigan and Iowa at home. Que John Stossel.....Give me a break.
2) Iowa Giving Away Basketball Tickets to Students - What the hell is wrong with Hawkeye fan? Indiana lowering their balcony prices to $5 for the first time in history thinks that you are ridiculous. So far, over 2000 students have taken advantage of the promotion for the nationally televised game. The story can be found here.
3) Oklahoma State Students Are Idiots - Did anyone catch the highlights of the OSU/Oklahoma game? Did you see the ice storm that hit Stillwater? While it is understandable that Oklahomans aren't used to ice, I have no idea how ESPN was able to capture these idiot students completely falling on their asses. Note to Oklahoma State students: Ice is slippery. You need to use a little caution when you walk on it. Check the video below. I especially like the guy with the backpack.

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Northwestern Preview #2

Michigan State looks to beat Northwestern for the second time this year. Their previous contest featured one of Raymar Morgan's best games of the year where he went for 22 points and 13 rebounds. Today, it is uncertain whether or not Raymar Morgan will play due to an illness. Can the bench provide enough to overcome the outside shooting Wildcats? Joe Rexrode discusses it here.

Northwestern (9-6 overall, 1-4 in the conference)

Key Wins:
vs. Florida State 73-59
vs. Minnesota 74-65

Key Losses:
at Penn State 61-57
at Wisconsin 74-45
vs MSU 77-66
vs Purdue 63-61

Why Northwestern Could Win:
1. Hot shooting - We all are aware of how much Northwestern likes to shoot the three ball. In fact, 36% of all of their points this year have come from behind the arc. Craig Moore continues to be hot shooting 45% from three point land on the season. Kevin Coble can also convert from distance. If they shoot the lights out in the Breslin, we could see another overplayed BTN commercial featuring an upset of MSU.
2. Turnover Margin - Northwestern is a top the Big Ten with regards to turnover margin at +4.33. The Wildcats lead the Big Ten in steals per game averaging over 8 swipes per contest. Add that to a very efficient offense that scores on an assist 68% of the time and you have a recipe for success. If the Spartans turn the ball over like they did in the first half of the Illinois game, we will be in big trouble.
3. Look Inside More - During last matchup against MSU, Northwestern got a lot of easy buckets down low. Luckily for us, the Wildcats insisted on chucking up threes from nearly half court. If they play more disciplined and only shoot threes when they are open, they could make this a close game. Also look for them to exploit Suton's apparent lack of quickness out on the perimeter. He had a hard time defending against the drive the last time we played them probably due to his knee injury.

Why Northwestern could lose:
1. Poor Rebounding - The Wildcats are dead last in conference rebounding margin at worse than -14 per game. This is horrendous. The next worse is -4.4 per game. Look for Michigan State to dominate on the glass and probably increase their current rebounding margin of +15.
2. Lack of athleticism. If MSU gets out and running, Northwestern will have essentially no chance of winning this game. The Wildcats will need to slow it down, be patient, and run the Princeton offense effectively to beat the more athletic Spartans.
3. MSU is Shutting Down the Three in Conference - Currently Michigan State leads the Big Ten in conference 3-pt FG defense holding opponents to just under 29%. While I would hope that this is due to great Spartan defensive pressure, I'm concerned that our conference opponents have just been cold so far this year. Historically, we have not defended the three well but if we continue our current pace, we will be very successful through the end of the season.

Summary:
On paper, it appears that Michigan State will dominate nearly all aspects of this game. They should be able to dictate tempo, outrebound, and have success defending Northwestern's three point shooters without difficulty. Then, add in the fact that the game is going to be played in the Breslin Center and you have to wonder how Michigan State could possibly lose this game. Statistics do not always translate onto the court however.

The only way that Northwestern wins this game is if Coble and Moore get extremely hot and the team creates 20+ Michigan State turnovers. Don't be surprised if the Wildcats achieve one of these two goals, but I don't think both will happen. In the end, the more athletic Spartans will prevail.

Michigan State over Northwestern 72-56

Quotes:
"They're a lot different, they're going to more of those 6-7, 6-8 guys. ... They're turning people over a lot, they're a lot different team than they were, and (Craig) Moore has been pretty effective as of late. ...This is a better team than the one we played earlier, and we are, too."
--Tom Izzo on Northwestern

I agree with all of the above except for how we are a better team than when we played them earlier. Since then we have been Helter Skelter with great wins over Ohio State and Kansas, but then struggling badly against Penn State and Illinois.

"They are a fast-paced team, they get the ball out and go. We have to get back, stop the ball and make them play against our 1-3-1 zone."
--Michael Thompson, NW sophomore guard

The first step is believing. The next is going out and doing it.

Around the Big Ten
1) Michigan Destroyed by Penn State 73-58 - Michigan's insistence to jack up threes is ridiculous. They started this game with 8 three-ball attempts in the first three and a half minutes. They finished 5-30 from behind the arc while DeShawn Sims was dominating inside. Sims finished with 21 points and 11 rebounds on 10-14 shooting. Hopefully Michigan will continue to ignore Sims when we play them down in Ann Arbor.

Michigan's current 3-game skid is starting to make Brian Ellerbe and Tommy Amaker proud. Could they be going into their typical January and February disappearing act? No way this Michigan team misses the tournament this year right? I knew I shouldn't have picked them to finished third in the conference.

2) Illinois Handled Ohio State - Illinois had their typical balanced scoring act while Ohio State had difficulty taking care of the ball. The Buckeyes finished with a season high 20 turnovers. BJ Mullens finished with 14 points on 6-8 shooting.

Email:
"Why didn't you comment on the Arkansas's hiring of John L. Smith as special teams coordinator?"
--Jon from Owosso, MI

Well, I indeed did know about it. I just didn't know if I should put it into the blog or not. It's pretty ironic that John L. Smith got this gig as a special teams coordinator. I hope he doesn't "screw it up."



Tomorrow - Northwestern Post Game

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More Illinois Post Game

It's two days later, and I still don't know how we won that Illinois game. The most obvious reason is our advantage on the boards, but I think Illinois playing poorly had much more to do with it. It wasn't like Michigan State got real hot and ran away with the game in the end. Instead, Illinois suddenly became ice cold and did not score in the last six minutes. I don't think that was due to stiffling MSU defense either.

Worst Plays from Illinois Game - As I said yesterday, it wasn't the number Spartan mistakes that was frustrating, it was the nature of them.
1) Walton's Free Throws - Almost all of them were ugly, but the airball was brutal. Thank god those late free throws were not needed.
2) Lucas Pass of Delvon Roe's Hip - Lucas tried to give it up to Roe as he was setting a screen. It ended up bouncing off his hip and going the other way for an Illini basket.
3) Gray Blows a Breakaway Dunk - Trent Meacham tried to strip him, but really wasn't a factor in the play. Gray just missed it.
4) Suton Fumbles Alley-Oop - He tried to convert it into a lay-up, but it didn't work.

That's Rediculous
1) Inadvertant Whitsle -The only thing worse that this play was Travis Walton's defense on Alex Legion that led to the three pointer. He got caught up in a screen under the basket and looked confused as to who to cover. I couldn't help thinking at the time that this stuff seems to always happen to us. Luckily for us, it wasn't the difference in the game however. The Spartans bounced back quickly led by Goran Suton and his quick three point shot.
2) Tom Izzo's Technical - We still don't know what led to Coach getting T'd up. The announcers speculated that he said something to a player and the refs thought he was talking to them. They also said that the particular ref that called the technical has T'd Izzo up in four out of his last five games while officiating Spartan games. If that is true, that guy shouldn't be reffing our games anymore. Someone needs to look into that.

While I Was Gone in the Big Ten
1) Minnesota/Wisconsin - The dramatic Gopher win could really help MSU down the road. The Badgers don't lose many games at home and it was surprising to see them go down to Minnesota. 2) Purdue/Northwestern - A Wildcat win would have been huge for the Spartans, but it wasn't meant to be. Despite their two losses, I still think that Purdue will be the team contending with Michigan State for the title.
3) Ohio State/Michigan - The Buckeyes seemed to bounce back with a huge game in Ann Arbor. Who the heck knows what to expect from Michigan on any given night. They may beat the Spartans at home this year and then lose to Indiana.
4) Northwestern/Minnesota - In a game that featured 19 made three-pointers, you would have thought that Northwestern would have lived and died by the three. This really wasn't the case. Craig Moore was 6-9 from distance, but the rest of the Wildcats were 3-12. The tandem of Moore and Coble proved to be the difference as they went for 22 and 20 respectively.

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Northwestern Preview

The Spartans look to follow up their impressive win over Minnesota with a victory at Northwestern today.

Northwestern (8-3 overall, 0-1 in the conference)

Key Wins:
vs. Florida State 73-59

Key Losses:
at Butler 57-53
at Stanford 65-59
at Penn State 61-57

Why they could win:
1. Statistically, they are playing really good defense. The Wildcats lead the conference in scoring defense allowing only 53.8 ppg. They are holding opponents to 39% shooting from the field which is second in the Big Ten, but 24th nationally. They are also second to Purdue in the Big Ten with regards to turnover margin with a +3.8 value.
2. Hot shooting. So far this season, the Wildcats are shooting 40% from behind the arc. Their best three point shooters are Kevin Coble and Craig Moore. They are shooting 40% and 47% respectively. Mix that in with the fact that Michigan State is notoriously bad at defending the three and this could be trouble. Northwestern is also making nearly 48% of their two-point shots.
3. Inspired play. Not only are the Wildcats playing to save the job of Bill Carmody, they also could be motivated by Craig Moore eclipsing the 1000 career point mark. This will most likely happen during the game.

Why Northwestern could lose:
1. Poor rebounding. Despite holding teams to poor FG percentages, the Wildcats are not rebounding very well, especially on the defensive end. They even rank worse than Minnesota with regards to cleaning the glass.
2. Lack of athleticism. If MSU gets out and running, Northwestern will have essentially no chance of winning this game. The Wildcats will need to slow it down, be patient, and run the Princeton offense effectively to beat the more athletic Spartans.
3. Their defense is likely overrated. Although statistically the Wildcats look amazingly competitive on the defensive end, their numbers are likely overinflated due to their lack of quality opponents. They are 0-3 against teams ranked in the top 50, but have played them all on the road and were extremely competitive in every game.

Summary:
This contest has all of the hallmarks of being a trap game. The Spartans are coming off of their best performance this season and face the perennial doormat of the Big Ten in Northwestern on the road. But this Northwestern team on paper appears to be cut from a different cloth. They are shooting the ball very well and forcing their opponents to take bad shots. The key to the game will be how do these stats translate against the most athletic team they have seen all season.

In the end, I see the Spartans coming home with the victory, but unimpressively. It will be a grind it out game and the Wildcats will hang around because of excellent three point shooting.

MSU over Northwestern 68-61.

Quotes:

"There has to be a point in time, and the last couple years we haven't found it, where players realize that every single game is important if you are trying to win a conference championship" -Tom Izzo in a LSJ article found here.

Email:

"Hey SpartyBasketball, I could not disagree with you more about Dahlman. I think that Izzo needs to find a way to consistently get him on the floor. I think that he is long and more athletic than most people think. He could contribute to this team greatly."

-Chris, Lansing

Again with the Dahlman thing? Once again, he's a nice kid and I do not have anything against him. If I met him, I am sure that we would get a long well. The problem is that he just isn't a good basketball player. I have no idea how you would know how athletic Dahlman is. You definitely have not seen it during an actual game. Maybe you have been to some practices or and saw something that none of us have? In the end, I think Dahlman needs to stay on the bench but I don't think that this is going to happen. I am sure that Izzo will give him some unexpected PT sometime throughout the season. When he does, I can only hope that he comes through and proves me wrong.

Tomorrow: Northwestern Post Game.

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More Minnesota Post Game

Spartans everywhere are still feeling really good about that win on the road against the Minnesota. The Spartans played nearly flawless and are starting conference play on the right foot. Can they keep this up? Only time will tell.

More Game Notes:
1. Game time change. I love how the Gophers changed the time of the basketball game so that fans could watch the Insight Bowl. I knew that the time was changed recently, but didn't know why until they announced it on the broadcast. Way to play the game at 11 AM local time. That's like AAU ball. Maybe they ran it back with U of M -Duluth right after.
2. The other Smith. Did anyone else notice Sal Smith as a Minnesota assisstant coach? Can this guy do anything without his dad helping him? George W. thinks thinks Sal Smith is ridiculous.
3. I overlooked Al Nolen. In my preview of the Minnesota game, I ignored Al Nolen who clearly looks to be the leader of this team. He has a balanced game and leads the Gophers in both assists and steals. If he stays all four years at Minnesota, he could be a first team all conference player.

Related Michigan State News:

MSU football gets beat by Georgia 24-12. In the end, I was happy with the Spartans' effort. They played hard and made the final score respectable. I would have predicted a much more lopsided loss and we should be happy that it turned out to be a close game. The truth of the matter is, however, that Georgia did everything they could to give us this game. They made three key turnovers but the Spartans couldn't capitalize on them. Their punter missed the ball on a punt attempt for God's sake! I've never seen that before. It was truly hilarious. Anyways, they might have gotten the dubya, but we got their mascot.

Hopefully, Coach D'Antonio will use this bowl game appearance as a stepping stone to take our program to the next level.


Mailbag:
"I'm not going to claim to know what was in Izzo's head, but I'm pretty sure he was playing because he's a good basketball player and Izzo thought having him on the court would help the team. Keep in mind, this kid is the all-time point scorer in Minnesota history. That's pretty impressive. Obviously, he has some skills. I highly doubt that Izzo put him in just because he's from Minnesota."
-Steve from Gladwin

I have received a lot of flack regarding my comments on Isaiah Dahlman. Let me just say, I don't have anything against the guy personally. He seems like a great kid who tries really hard. He just lacks the talent necessary to play in the Big Ten. It's that plain and simple.

Secondly, I wanted to address this "all-time point scorer in Minnesota [High School] history" business one more time. Like I have said previously, Isaiah is no longer Minnesota's career scoring leader. That record was broken early in 2008 by a guy named Cody Shilling. Do you know where he ended up? Not Duke, Carolina, or even Minnesota for that matter. Augustana College. A DII school! Is that "pretty impressive"?

Dahlman should have transferred early this year when he saw Thornton playing ahead of him. I think the players are about equal as far as talent goes, but Thornton has more elgibility and therefore, more potential to contribute in the future.

Side Note: The Michigan High School basketball career scoring leader is Jay Smith from Mio (1979). Smith most notably was the Central Michigan head coach from 1997-2006. He is currently an assistant at the Univ. of Detroit for Ray McCallum.

Tomorrow: Northwestern Preview

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Spartans Pound Minnesota 70-58

I love it when I am wrong! The Spartans came out with an amazing effort and got a huge road win to start the Big Ten season. They played essentially flawless and flourished under the leadership of Kalin Lucas. While he was scoring easily throughout the game, the entire team clamped down on defense to keep the Gophers' high scoring offense in check.

Player of the Game: Kalin Lucas - Career high 24 points on 9-18 shooting.

What went well:
1) Tremendous rebounding. The Spartans outrebounded the Gophers 49-27, including a 23-11 offensive rebouding advantage. This is purely a result of Coach Izzo's emphasis on winning the battle on the boards.
2) Kalin Lucas played superb. He looked like a true floor general out there today. He pushed the ball effectively and used his quickness to get easy baskets. He is going to make me eat my words about how I thought he was on pace to tie Drew Neitzel for the worst offseason regression ever.
3) Chris Allen got hot in the first half. The box score doesn't adequately reflect Allen's impact on this game. He got hot quickly and set the tone for the Spartans early in the game. You have to admire the confidence that this kid has despite not shooting the ball well so far this year. He has never seen a shot that he didn't like.
4) Great defense. We held the Gophers to a season low 39% from the field.
5) Superior Athletes. Newsflash: The team with the best athletes normally wins. That was us today. Minnesota just couldn't keep pace with our boys.

What didn't go well:
1) Raymar Morgan's Offense. He tried his best to disappear in this big game, but ended up with one of the ugliest double-doubles I have ever seen. He did not travel however, so I am thankful for that.
2) Contributions from the bench. Aside from Allen, we didn't get much from our bench today. Other than his olley-oop and his thunderous dunk, I didn't like what I saw from Summers gain. He continues to rely on an outside shot that I don't believe is legit. Even with Roe hurt, Marquise didn't find his way onto the court after he played a total of seven minutes despite not being in foul trouble. Why doesn't Izzo just tell Gray that he hates him? I mean, this guy is a basketcase, but why play Draymond Green over him? That makes no sense.

Post Game Quotes:
"When a team beats you by 22 on the boards, you have no chance of winning" - University of Minnesota Coach Tubby Smith

"....I'd say this was one of our best games"- Tom Izzo

That's ridiculous!
1) Booing Dahlman is ridiculous. The only thing more ridiculous was the fact that he got on the floor at all. Why was he playing? Because he is from Minnesota? Give me a break Coach! Everyone knows that Dahlman can't do anything without the chemistry of his fellow practice squad teammates Mike Kleber and Jon Crandell.
2) Durrell Summers' dunk not being replayed on the live broadcast. I think it was the best dunk I've ever seen him do, but I'm not sure because I can't remember it. I think he dunked right on a Gopher but if that were the case, it seems like he would have been fouled. So far, I can't find that highlight anywhere.
3) University of Minnesota Sweeper Logos. Did you notice how the University of Minnesota logo'd up their court mops with their weird block M?
4) Goran Suton getting stuffed by the rim. For all of those fans out there who wonder why he doesn't dunk more, that is why. He looked hideous!
5) This picture of Draymond Green. What could have he done that warrented this pose? All I saw him do was make a nice steal only to be caught from behind and stripped on his way to the basket.
6) Anthony Crater leaving OSU after listening to his AAU coach. This coach was quoted as saying that Noopy always had a "two- or three-year plan" at OSU and then off to the NBA. Now it is a two- or three- year plan at Mott.
Full articles here and here

Post Game Quotes:
"When a team beats you by 22 on the boards, you have no chance of winning" - University of Minnesota Coach Tubby Smith

"....I'd say this was one of our best games"- Tom Izzo

Mailbag:
Great blog, enjoyed it. I think you have to add "make free throws" to the Spartans' keys to success. We're getting killed at the line and this could really cost us.
-ShowtimeSparty in Ferndale.

Undoubtedly, that belongs on my keys to the Spartans' success. I have mentioned before on this blog, but somehow left it out of my Big Ten Preview. The good news is that yesterday, we were 12-13 from the charity stripe. Thanks for the email.


Tomorrow: More Minnesota Post Game

Big Ten Preview Part 3

3. Michigan 10-2
Just when God blessed all Spartan fans with Rich Rodriguez, he had to start what appears to be a dramatic turnaround to the Michigan basketball program. At 10-2, the Wolverines have already matched their win total from one year ago. John Beilein has this team playing well on both sides of the ball lead by Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. The "Detroit Connection", as they are being promoted by the U of M athletic department, has become one of the best inside-out duos not only in the conference, but nationally. It's difficult to say what has sparked this tremendous turnaround so far this season. I directly attribute it to the dramatic improvement of Sims during the offseason. He has essentially doubled his rebounding average this year and increased his scoring average from 12 to 17 ppg. If he were to keep on this pace through conference play, he would be the conference player of the year.

I would love to say that Michigan's success has been against lackluster competition, but this is not the case. Unlike many recent Michigan teams that have had hot starts, the '08 Wolverines have the most impressive wins among all of the Big Ten teams. They beat UCLA convincingly early in the season at MSG and eventually split a rare non-conference pair of games with Duke beating them at home. Non-believers would argue that UCLA isn't that good and that the Duke game was a fluke. I could see that argument.

Why they can beat MSU:
1) The 1-3-1 Defense. After watching the UCLA game, it was obvious how the 1-3-1 was dramatically improved. Beilein has extended it to nearly half court and it has a very high pressure presence. The first thing I thought of was that this is the type of defense that has plagued the Spartans for a decade. I can see us turning the ball over a ton.
2) The "Detroit Connection" could get hot. Let's be honest, the Spartans wanted both of these guys and couldn't get it done. They are tremendous players that could take over a game against anyone in the country.
3) Laval Lucas-Perry is now playing. I was skeptical that he would contribute the way Wolverine fans thought that he would, but so far, he has scored in double figures every game.
4) Superior FT shooting. As a team, they are shooting over 80% from the line. Mix that in with the only game at Crysler this year and we are in trouble.

Why MSU will win:
1) We have a deeper bench. We don't clutter our bench with brothers of overhyped football players or former transfers from Rutgers. We will hopefully wear out the starters for the Wolverines and get some cheap baskets.
2) Better rebounding. Aside from Sims, the Wolverines are average rebounders at best. This is one of our strengths and we will exploit it.
3) We will exploit their defense. Michigan has been efficient on offense, but not on the defensive end. Currently their defense is ranked 136 nationally in Pomeroy rankings. They will have to improve on this to beat the Spartans.
4) Izzo is a better coach. While Beilein is approaching 500 wins, Izzo has the clear advantage.

In the end, I was hesitant to place the Wolverines so high in my rankings. They could very easily finish as low as 8th in the conference. They could also win it all. I'll hope for the fomer, rather than the latter.

Predicted Record: 11-5


1. Purdue (Tie) 11-3
Unlike last year, Purdue has the bullseye on their back as the conference favorite. My heart tells me that they won't live up to the hype since they will not be surprising anyone this year, but my mind tells me that they are really good. What impresses me most about Purdue is their great pressure defense that causes a lot of turnovers. They lead the Big Ten with a +6 turnover margin and are second in steals. Defense is the staple of this team and should provide a great deal of consistency throughout the year.

Offense will be the limiting factor for the Boilermakers this year. Although they have the capability to put points on the board, I don't know how well they will respond when everyone knows they have been picked to win the conference. So far this year, Robbie Hummel has continued to be a force averaging 14 points and nearly 8 rebounds per game. E'twaun Moore on the other hand has struggled somewhat so far this season. While his ppg are up, his shooting percentage is down. He shot nearly 44% from three point land one year ago and is currently shooting 32%. In order for them to be a contender for the conference title, he will have to play better.

Why they can beat MSU:
1. Aggresive defense. Like I said about Michigan's 1-3-1, Purdue plays an aggressive, in your face defense that has historically given MSU problems. I have faith in Kalin Lucas' ability to break their full court pressure, but I am unsure about the rest of the Spartans. I think that Lucious has the ability to push the ball up, but he is only a freshman and that is a lot to ask.
2. Hummel, Moore, and Johnson. These guys have the capability to put big numbers up in a hurry. If they get hot offensively, Purdue's defense will carry them to a victory.

Why MSU can beat them:
1. An efficient offense. If we play to our potential, I think we are capable of putting big numbers up on anyone.
2. Superior rebounding. As a team, we are better rebounders although JuJuan Johnson is a force individually. We will need all the second chance points we can get.
3. Deeper Bench. We can legitimately play 9 or 10 deep and with Purdue's style of play, I anticipate both teams needing to go to role players due to foul trouble.

Predicted Record: 14-4

1. Michigan State (Tie) 9-2
It is very hard for me to put the Spartans on top this year. Mainly because they have consistently let me down during conference play throughout this entire decade. Certainly I think that winning a share of the conference is a lofty prediction, especially with the way they have played so far. I know they were picked by the media and coaches to finish second, but like every other year, this is because of our success during the previous year's NCAA tournament and how we were returning most of our starters. This team is not playing as well as a #10 ranking suggests.

Keys to success:
1) Chris Allen needs to find his shot. He is really struggling right now to find his shot. His defense is weak as it is so if he isn't hitting shots, he might as well not be on the floor. He also is the only true three point shooter we have. I don't buy Summers being a legitimate threat from the perimeter although he has shot the ball well from distance so far this year.
2) Raymar Morgan needs to be consistent. No more dissappearing in big games. No more travelling in transition. He needs to continue to pound the ball inside and stay away from perimeter shots.
3) Limit turnovers. I was surprised to see that MSU is only average among Big Ten teams in turnovers and turnover margin. It seems like they have taken care of the ball better this year, but the statistics do not show this. It's probably because in recent years, their turnovers have been ridiculously high so now when they are average, I think they are doing well.
4) Lucas needs to be a consistent penetrator. Hopefully the Oakland game is the turning point for him and he starts to find his shot. If he can add some scoring to his terrific assist/turnover ratio, we will have a great shot at winning this league.
5) Avoid injuries. The conference season is off to a rough start with Roe on the bench probably for the first two games. Like everyone in the Big Ten, this team will need everyone to be 100% in order to win.
6) Consistent Rebounding. The Spartans lead the conference in rebounding margin with +7. This is solid and slightly exceeds my expectations since we don't have a dominant rebounder. We clean up on the boards because of Izzo's philosophy more than anything.

Predicted Record: 14-4


Later Today: Minnesota Preview.