Minnesota Preview #2

Michigan State looks to bounce back from a devastating loss against Penn State by taking on the Gophers at home.

Minnesota (12-0) Ranked #21 in both polls

Key Wins:
vs. Louisville 70-64
vs. Wisconsin 78-74
vs. Penn State 79-59
vs. Illinois 59-36

Key Losses:
vs. Michigan State 70-58
at Northwestern 74-65

Why Minnesota Could Win:
1. Surprisingly Good Defense - Coming into the Big Ten season, Minnesota was ranked 8th in the conference in scoring defense. That was even with a weak non-conference schedule. But since conference play has started, they are only giving up 61 points per game which is good enough for third in the Big Ten. They lead the league in blocks and steals and are second in FG defense. Look for Al Nolan to lead a high pressure defense to try and make the Spartans turn the ball over.
2. Lawrence Westbrook is Playing Well - Westbrook has had a great Big Ten season so far. He is averaging 15 points per game and is shooting over 44% from the 3-pt line within conference play. I expect him to play better than he did against us the first time.
3. Raymar Morgan Out - We will undoubtedly miss his defense in this game. I hope Izzo thinks twice about playing Thornton more as this would make us miss Raymar even more. In case you were wondering, Morgan finished with a unflattering double-double the last time these two teams played. He had 11 points on 4-11 shooting.
4. Michigan State's Insistence to Shoot Outside Shots - If we don't pound the ball down low and settle for jump shots, I think we are at the mercy of the basketball Gods to grant us a good shooting night. I would like to see us get some good posessions in the paint that do not come off of offensive rebounds.
5. Goran Suton's Right Knee - He hurt it on Monday, but he should play. If he doesn't, I do not think we will have a chance to win.

Why Michigan State Can Snap This 2-Game Home Losing Streak:
1. Poor Gopher 3-Point Shooting - With the last two opponents shooting the lights out of the Breslin, I take comfort in the fact that the Gophers are only shooting 33% from behind the arc. With our luck, however, Blake Hoffarber will probably get his third consecutive trip the ESPYs with another miracle shot against us. See the videos at the bottom of this post if you don't know what I'm talking about.
2. Rebounding - We dominated the last game with a margin of +22. That included a 23-11 edge in offense rebounds. Minnesota has improved since this game, but I don't see them outrebounding us at home.
3. Kalin Lucas - He had a phenomenal game in the first match up and with the recent loss, I expect him to play with a purpose. We will see if Al Nolen can stop him.

Summary:
Unfortunately, I think this game will come down to how well the Spartans shoot the ball from the outside. I think we could win the game if we focus on getting the ball inside, but we haven't done that so far this season, so I don't know what would make Izzo do it now. Either way, I think our players will be ready to play despite Minnesota's harassing defense. The Spartans will escape a close one.

Michigan State over Minnesota 69-66.

Around the Big Ten
1) Ohio State Clips Purdue at Home - The Buckeyes beat Purdue in overtime behind great shooting. They shot 60% against the Boilermakers, which is incredible given Purdue's excellent defense. This game featured two of the worst plays ever to end regulation with the score tied. Evan Turner turned the ball over dribbling to the basket and Matt Painter elected not to call a timeout so that E'Twaun Moore could penetrate in the lane for some off-balanced shot. Luckily for us, it didn't go down.

Tomorrow: Minnesota Post Game #2. (Post will be up later in the evening due to real life)


Blake Hoffarber's Highlight Reels That Got Him to the ESPY's Two Years In a Row

free hit counters

Spartans Pound Minnesota 70-58

I love it when I am wrong! The Spartans came out with an amazing effort and got a huge road win to start the Big Ten season. They played essentially flawless and flourished under the leadership of Kalin Lucas. While he was scoring easily throughout the game, the entire team clamped down on defense to keep the Gophers' high scoring offense in check.

Player of the Game: Kalin Lucas - Career high 24 points on 9-18 shooting.

What went well:
1) Tremendous rebounding. The Spartans outrebounded the Gophers 49-27, including a 23-11 offensive rebouding advantage. This is purely a result of Coach Izzo's emphasis on winning the battle on the boards.
2) Kalin Lucas played superb. He looked like a true floor general out there today. He pushed the ball effectively and used his quickness to get easy baskets. He is going to make me eat my words about how I thought he was on pace to tie Drew Neitzel for the worst offseason regression ever.
3) Chris Allen got hot in the first half. The box score doesn't adequately reflect Allen's impact on this game. He got hot quickly and set the tone for the Spartans early in the game. You have to admire the confidence that this kid has despite not shooting the ball well so far this year. He has never seen a shot that he didn't like.
4) Great defense. We held the Gophers to a season low 39% from the field.
5) Superior Athletes. Newsflash: The team with the best athletes normally wins. That was us today. Minnesota just couldn't keep pace with our boys.

What didn't go well:
1) Raymar Morgan's Offense. He tried his best to disappear in this big game, but ended up with one of the ugliest double-doubles I have ever seen. He did not travel however, so I am thankful for that.
2) Contributions from the bench. Aside from Allen, we didn't get much from our bench today. Other than his olley-oop and his thunderous dunk, I didn't like what I saw from Summers gain. He continues to rely on an outside shot that I don't believe is legit. Even with Roe hurt, Marquise didn't find his way onto the court after he played a total of seven minutes despite not being in foul trouble. Why doesn't Izzo just tell Gray that he hates him? I mean, this guy is a basketcase, but why play Draymond Green over him? That makes no sense.

Post Game Quotes:
"When a team beats you by 22 on the boards, you have no chance of winning" - University of Minnesota Coach Tubby Smith

"....I'd say this was one of our best games"- Tom Izzo

That's ridiculous!
1) Booing Dahlman is ridiculous. The only thing more ridiculous was the fact that he got on the floor at all. Why was he playing? Because he is from Minnesota? Give me a break Coach! Everyone knows that Dahlman can't do anything without the chemistry of his fellow practice squad teammates Mike Kleber and Jon Crandell.
2) Durrell Summers' dunk not being replayed on the live broadcast. I think it was the best dunk I've ever seen him do, but I'm not sure because I can't remember it. I think he dunked right on a Gopher but if that were the case, it seems like he would have been fouled. So far, I can't find that highlight anywhere.
3) University of Minnesota Sweeper Logos. Did you notice how the University of Minnesota logo'd up their court mops with their weird block M?
4) Goran Suton getting stuffed by the rim. For all of those fans out there who wonder why he doesn't dunk more, that is why. He looked hideous!
5) This picture of Draymond Green. What could have he done that warrented this pose? All I saw him do was make a nice steal only to be caught from behind and stripped on his way to the basket.
6) Anthony Crater leaving OSU after listening to his AAU coach. This coach was quoted as saying that Noopy always had a "two- or three-year plan" at OSU and then off to the NBA. Now it is a two- or three- year plan at Mott.
Full articles here and here

Post Game Quotes:
"When a team beats you by 22 on the boards, you have no chance of winning" - University of Minnesota Coach Tubby Smith

"....I'd say this was one of our best games"- Tom Izzo

Mailbag:
Great blog, enjoyed it. I think you have to add "make free throws" to the Spartans' keys to success. We're getting killed at the line and this could really cost us.
-ShowtimeSparty in Ferndale.

Undoubtedly, that belongs on my keys to the Spartans' success. I have mentioned before on this blog, but somehow left it out of my Big Ten Preview. The good news is that yesterday, we were 12-13 from the charity stripe. Thanks for the email.


Tomorrow: More Minnesota Post Game

Big Ten Preview Part 2

7. Illinois 12-1
Statistically, Illinois is the most well balanced team in the Big Ten so far this year. On offense, they are shooting almost 49% from the field and nearly 40% from three. They lead the nation in assist percentage at 72% and are not turning the ball over. On the other side of the ball, they have shut down their opponents and are ranked 5th nationally in scoring defense. Only Clemson has scored more than 64 points against them. The Tigers were also the only team to shoot higher than 46% from the field against the Illini.

After all of that, one would think that Illinois is unbeatable. But, Bruce Webber has his work cut out for him from here on out. The Illini have a brutal Big Ten schedule that is terribly front loaded. In their first six games, they travel to Purdue, play Michigan twice, at MSU, and at home against Ohio State. That is tough. If Illinois is going to have a breakout year, they will have to be successful early on in conference play.

Why they can beat MSU:
1) MSU can't win at Illinois. Izzo rarely wins in front of the Orange Crush. Last year was the exception.
2) They have the ability to hit shots
3) They are playing great defense
4) Great coaching

Why they will lose to MSU:
1) They have to play at the Breslin
2) I question their ability to rebound (although they are outrebounding opponents right now)
3) They lack depth

Predicted Record: 8-10


6. Minnesota 12-0
It is probably a stretch to put the Golden Gophers this high, but they are undefeated and have an excellent coach in Tubby Smith. Of course, they haven't really played anyone either. Even their win over Louisville is probably overvalued as I don't think that the Cardinals are that good. Nonetheless, the Gophers' success thus far has been great for the conference but I don't expect it to last. I don't think that they can continue scoring over 75 points per game in the Big Ten. I think that they will have a good year for Minnesota and may sneek into the tournament.

Why they can beat MSU:
1) Momentum. They start the Big Ten season in The Barn against the Spartans and are riding one of the best winning streaks that they have seen in recent years. Tubby will have his boys ready to play.
2) Ability to score. So far the Gophers are averaging 75 points per game which is second in the Big Ten. I don't think that this will last in conference play, but it could
3) Good coaching. Everyone knows Tubby Smith is an elite coach. Just not the University of Kentucky.
4) Shot Blocking. They lead the Big Ten in blocked shots with more than 7 per game.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) Suspect Defense. They have not been shutting down teams defensively so far this year despite their cupcake schedule. They will have to force more turnovers and rebound better to beat quality opponents.
2) Lack of athleticism.

Predicted Record: 9-9


5. Wisconsin 12-3
With their success during the Bo Ryan era, I consider the Badgers to be our most intense, recent rival. They probably don't look at it that way since they have pretty much dominated us during that time. While most Spartans hate Bo Ryan, you have to respect this guy's ability to coach. Unlike Izzo, he rarely has a team favored to win the Big Ten, but seems to seriously contend for the conference title year in and year out. So far, the Badgers have been quiet on the national stage. They do not have a win against a quaility opponent, but played the Texas and Marquette close. They were blown out by UConn earlier in the year.

It's hard for me to predict Wisconsin finishing fifth in the conference, but that is just the way it shook out. If not for what I think is the easiest Big Ten schedule, I might have put them even lower. Maybe it is because subconsciously that is where I want them to finish. My argument is that they don't have any quality wins so far and that they aren't rebounding the ball as well as they normally do. It is not inconceivable that they end up winning the Big Ten, but I prefer not to think that way.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) Bo Ryan owns Tom Izzo. Like it or not, it is fact. The best part of this is that they obviously don't like each other. When they both get old and senile, I could see them going John Chaney on each other.
2) Experience. Landry and Krabbenhoft have been there for freakin' ever! When will they leave? Travon Hughes is also an excellent leader as a junior and Jason Bohannon was the Sixth Man of the year last year.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) They do not play the Spartans in Madison this year. That sucks for them, but is even better for us. It's difficult for us to win there.
2) Turnovers. Although the Badgers are known for taking care of the ball, their turnover margin this year is essentially zero and ranks 10th in the Big Ten so far. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during conference play.
3) Poor transition game. Wisconsin is better at grinding games out and if we can score in transition, I don't think they have a chance.

Predicted Record: 10-6


4. Ohio State 9-1
In contrast to Wisconsin, I was hesitant to place the Buckeyes fourth in my conference preview. Despite quality wins at Miami, at home against Butler, and against Notre Dame in a neutral site game, I do not have a ton of confidence in the way this team is playing. When I break down each of these games, I see flaws. At Miami, their best player gets kicked out for being an idiot and swinging at Anthony Crater. They barely got past Butler at home which is a good team, but not as good as they have been the last two years. They beat Notre Dame without Harongody and then most importantly of all, West Virginia went UNC on them this past weekend at home.
There is not doubt that the athleticism is there in Columbus, but how far will that get them. I don't think that their players have polished their skills enough to seriously contend for the Big Ten title. They will win some games against the league's best teams, but I don't think that they will do it consistently.

Why they can beat the Spartans:
1) Athleticism. I think they are the most athletic team in the Big Ten. Evan Turner has been dominate so far this year. He probably won't be around next year.
2) BJ Mullins could step his game up and be the big time recruit that he was supposed to be. It hasn't happened so far.
3) Defense. They are playing pretty well on the defensive end so far this year. They are only giving up 55 ppg and WV was the only team to hit for 70 or more this year against them.

Why they won't beat the Spartans:
1) Inconsistency.
2) Lack of depth.

Predicted Record: 12-6

MSU Related News:
1) Delvon Roe Doubtful. He probably won't play for MSU at The Barn on Wednesday. Ideally, I would like to go to a small line up, putting Morgan at the PF position, and play a three gaurd lineup with Lucas, Walton, and Allen. But, since Allen is struggling, I think I would put Summers at the SF. Izzo may opt to stay big and put Marquise in at the PF which would be fine, but you never know what he is going to give you.

2.) Spartans ranked No. 10 in AP; No. 15 in ESPN/USA Today. Although I don't think that we are playing as well as a top 10 team should, I take comfort in the fact that Texas is more overrated than we are. We will see if we live up to our ranking on Wednesday.

Quotes:

"We're making progress as we get guys back. And if there is a team that is prepared for road games, it should be us." -Tom Izzo on Wednesday's matchup against Minnesota.

-Okay coach. I'll hold you to this although we have had more difficult non-conference schedules in the past with better Spartan teams that didn't translate to success on the road. He must be counting the games at Ford Field and The Palace as being away games.

Tomorrow: Big Ten Preview Part 3 and Preview of Minnesota.