MSU Basketball Notes

MSU Basketball Notes:
1) Spartans Ranked #9 in Both Polls - MSU only slipped one spot after their horrible loss at home to Northwestern and a come from behind win at Ohio State. We couldn't have asked for more than that.
2) Tom Izzo Thinks the Big Ten is Legit - In the Big Ten teleconference Monday, Tom Izzo stated that the conference is the toughest in the nation when examined from top to bottom. Full story here. Bo Ryan says "A lot depends on how the media spins it. Here in the Midwest, it's easy to see that the Big Ten is a pretty tough contest." I agree. Our conference has one miserable team, but all of the others could beat any team in the country given they have a good night.
3) Sit Down Big Fella' - A writer for the State News calls for Raymar Morgan to sit down until he is fully healthy. The link can be found here. The article is best summarized by this excerpt: "If Morgan’s presence was indispensable..., I would feel differently about the matter." I completely agree.

Around the Big Ten
1) Purdue Heads to Wisconsin - The Badgers are coming off of a four game losing streak, but they are always hard to beat at home. That's why they are favored by one point over the Boilermakers. I'd take the Badgers at home.
2) Kevin Coble - Was named the Co-Big Ten Player of the Week. Was there any question?

That's Ridiculous
1) Kevin Coble Sharing the Big Ten Player of the Week Honor - The powers that be said that Jamelle Cornley of Penn State had just as good of a week. Apparently the conference believes that Coble's 31 points in the Breslin center and 21 in Ann Arbor is equal to two double-doubles against Michigan and Iowa at home. Que John Stossel.....Give me a break.
2) Iowa Giving Away Basketball Tickets to Students - What the hell is wrong with Hawkeye fan? Indiana lowering their balcony prices to $5 for the first time in history thinks that you are ridiculous. So far, over 2000 students have taken advantage of the promotion for the nationally televised game. The story can be found here.
3) Oklahoma State Students Are Idiots - Did anyone catch the highlights of the OSU/Oklahoma game? Did you see the ice storm that hit Stillwater? While it is understandable that Oklahomans aren't used to ice, I have no idea how ESPN was able to capture these idiot students completely falling on their asses. Note to Oklahoma State students: Ice is slippery. You need to use a little caution when you walk on it. Check the video below. I especially like the guy with the backpack.

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Reality Check

Northwestern did the unthinkable Wednesday night by winning in East Lansing for the first time since 1984. Led by Kevin Coble's 31 points, the Wildcats relied on clutch three point shooting and their pressure 1-3-1 defense to overcome Michigan State's athleticism 70-63.

Player of the Game - Kevin Coble 31 points on 10-16 shooting.

Why Northwestern Won:
1) Points Off of Turnovers - Once again, it wasn't the number of turnovers that killed MSU in this game. It was Northwestern's effectiveness in turning these turnovers into points on the other end. The Wildcats turned 18 Michigan State turnovers into 27 points. That's almost 40% of their total points! Then, add in the fact that Northwestern only had 7 turnovers themselves and that is a recipe for disaster.
2) Clutch Outside Shooting - As a team, the Wildcats shot below their season average with regards to three point percentage at 32%. The key, however, was the timing of their threes. Whenever they needed a big basket, the Wildcats cashed in a three from near the hash mark. The back-to-back threes by Craig Moore and Michael Thompson with 6:31 remaining were especially clutch as they put the Wildcats up for good.
3) Kevin Coble - He went Drew Neitzel versus Wisconsin two years ago in the very same building. Whatever he chucked even near the basket was destined to go in. There was no stopping him on this night.
4) Poor Michigan State 3-Pt Shooting - If you compare the two games' box scores, the biggest difference between last night and the earlier meeting was our three-point shooting. In the first contest we finished 9-16 from behind the arc for 56%. Last night we shot less than 25% going 5-21. You can't credit all of this to Northwestern's defense either. Many of our attempts from beyond the arc were open looks that we just couldn't convert into points.
5) Excellent Coaching - Bill Carmody has done an excellent job with this team. They take care of the ball extremely well and play great pressure defense. Although I disagree with giving essentially the entire Wildcat team the green light to shoot anywhere on the floor, it might be the only way Northwestern is able to beat a team like Michigan State.

What Went Well for MSU:
1) Goran Suton - Despite not getting the ball enough, Suton managed to pull down a double-double and finished with 15 points and 14 rebounds. Although he still got beat a few times on the perimeter, he played solidly overall.
2) Free Throws - The Spartans finished 20-24 from the charity stripe lead by Suton's 9-11 performance. Can you imagine what this game would have been like if MSU shot their season average 68%?
3) Rebounding - Michigan State again outrebounded Northwestern in this contest with a +16 margin. They were led by Goran Suton's 14 rebounds.

Coaching Mistakes
1) We Ignored Our Bigs - Obviously we thought that our outside shooting was going to win this game. Tom Izzo even said as much in the pre-game interview. So, instead of attacking the zone inside, we got into a three-point contest with a team that lives and dies by the three. As a result, Northwestern outshot us from behind the three-point line and nearly outscored us in the paint (MSU 20, NW 18). That is unacceptable.
2) Clock Management - Although I disagree with it, I can understand fouling to get into the bonus when we are down by 7 with just over two minutes. What I can' t understand is why put Northwestern on the line when they are up by three with forty-five seconds left, especially when they are in the double bonus. Just play good defense, get a stop, and then look for a three.
3) Substitutions - I'm convinced there is no rhyme or reason to Izzo's substitutions. There's no way that Raymar should have should have seen the court, let alone play nearly half the game (18 minutes). And while I am a proponent of getting Lucas and Lucious on the court together, I certainly don't want to try it out when we are losing to Northwestern in the second half.
4) X's and O's - I got a lot of grief when I started this blog and said that I thought Izzo might be the worst X's and O's coach ever. Well, this may have been an overstatement, but you can see what I mean by watching the final two minutes of last night's game. When we desperately need a basket, a structured offensive play was not to be found. We got one good look by Chris Allen from three but this wasn't even a designed play. He was just open. Instead, we got a lot of Kalin Lucas dribbling atop the key (ala Mateen) with no results.
5) Pressure Defense - I saw for a short period of time Michigan State play in-your-face pressure defense last night. The problem was that it didn't start until 2 minutes left. Izzo needs to unleash these guys and let them pressure the ball more.

Other Game Thoughts
1) This is Why People Get Down on the Izzone - What was different between this game and the Ohio State game? Nothing. That's the problem. Someone at the LSJ needs to republish that 1999 article titled "Izzone: You Stink". The entire crowd was silent until late in the second half when it really looked like Northwestern had a chance to win this game. For as many times as Izzo has said how the Breslin crowd has won games for them in the past, he should come out today and say how they lost the game for them last night.
2) Note to the BTN: Someone please tell Tom Hamilton that Chris Hill does not play for us anymore. It's Chris Allen buddy. In the pregame, Jim Jackson also referred to Kalin Lucas as Kaden Lucas.

Quotes:
"It doesn't surprise me that we didn't go undefeated like most people around here thought we would. It does surprise me that we would lose at home in this fashion."
--Tom Izzo

Coach, before losing to Northwestern, most people around here were worried that we would blow a two game lead in the conference not whether or not we would go undefeated.

"My concern is not the loss, but rather how we respond to the loss." --Tom Izzo

"We just did not get the ball inside. I need to look at doing a better job of that myself."
--Tom Izzo

That's what I'm talking about. Feed the big men. Heck, I would like to us go without shooting a single three pointer for one game just to prove a point.

"Too many turnovers by the guards and the bigs, we've got to do a better job of being focused." --Kalin Lucas

Umm......The bigs only had two turnovers. The guards had 16. You had 6 and only 2 assists.

"People think they're bad shots. They're not. They just look different." --Kevin Coble

No...they are bad shots, but they went in. Like a true scorer, Coble hasn't ever seen a shot he didn't like.

Mailbag
"You're not helping 'em Raymar, your hurting 'em......and you shouldn't be on the court"
-Kyle from Austin, TX

Nice apparent Jim Rome reference although it wasn't Morgan's fault. As John L. said "The coach that sent him in...we shouldn't have sent him in, that's a dang coaching mistake!"

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Northwestern Preview #2

Michigan State looks to beat Northwestern for the second time this year. Their previous contest featured one of Raymar Morgan's best games of the year where he went for 22 points and 13 rebounds. Today, it is uncertain whether or not Raymar Morgan will play due to an illness. Can the bench provide enough to overcome the outside shooting Wildcats? Joe Rexrode discusses it here.

Northwestern (9-6 overall, 1-4 in the conference)

Key Wins:
vs. Florida State 73-59
vs. Minnesota 74-65

Key Losses:
at Penn State 61-57
at Wisconsin 74-45
vs MSU 77-66
vs Purdue 63-61

Why Northwestern Could Win:
1. Hot shooting - We all are aware of how much Northwestern likes to shoot the three ball. In fact, 36% of all of their points this year have come from behind the arc. Craig Moore continues to be hot shooting 45% from three point land on the season. Kevin Coble can also convert from distance. If they shoot the lights out in the Breslin, we could see another overplayed BTN commercial featuring an upset of MSU.
2. Turnover Margin - Northwestern is a top the Big Ten with regards to turnover margin at +4.33. The Wildcats lead the Big Ten in steals per game averaging over 8 swipes per contest. Add that to a very efficient offense that scores on an assist 68% of the time and you have a recipe for success. If the Spartans turn the ball over like they did in the first half of the Illinois game, we will be in big trouble.
3. Look Inside More - During last matchup against MSU, Northwestern got a lot of easy buckets down low. Luckily for us, the Wildcats insisted on chucking up threes from nearly half court. If they play more disciplined and only shoot threes when they are open, they could make this a close game. Also look for them to exploit Suton's apparent lack of quickness out on the perimeter. He had a hard time defending against the drive the last time we played them probably due to his knee injury.

Why Northwestern could lose:
1. Poor Rebounding - The Wildcats are dead last in conference rebounding margin at worse than -14 per game. This is horrendous. The next worse is -4.4 per game. Look for Michigan State to dominate on the glass and probably increase their current rebounding margin of +15.
2. Lack of athleticism. If MSU gets out and running, Northwestern will have essentially no chance of winning this game. The Wildcats will need to slow it down, be patient, and run the Princeton offense effectively to beat the more athletic Spartans.
3. MSU is Shutting Down the Three in Conference - Currently Michigan State leads the Big Ten in conference 3-pt FG defense holding opponents to just under 29%. While I would hope that this is due to great Spartan defensive pressure, I'm concerned that our conference opponents have just been cold so far this year. Historically, we have not defended the three well but if we continue our current pace, we will be very successful through the end of the season.

Summary:
On paper, it appears that Michigan State will dominate nearly all aspects of this game. They should be able to dictate tempo, outrebound, and have success defending Northwestern's three point shooters without difficulty. Then, add in the fact that the game is going to be played in the Breslin Center and you have to wonder how Michigan State could possibly lose this game. Statistics do not always translate onto the court however.

The only way that Northwestern wins this game is if Coble and Moore get extremely hot and the team creates 20+ Michigan State turnovers. Don't be surprised if the Wildcats achieve one of these two goals, but I don't think both will happen. In the end, the more athletic Spartans will prevail.

Michigan State over Northwestern 72-56

Quotes:
"They're a lot different, they're going to more of those 6-7, 6-8 guys. ... They're turning people over a lot, they're a lot different team than they were, and (Craig) Moore has been pretty effective as of late. ...This is a better team than the one we played earlier, and we are, too."
--Tom Izzo on Northwestern

I agree with all of the above except for how we are a better team than when we played them earlier. Since then we have been Helter Skelter with great wins over Ohio State and Kansas, but then struggling badly against Penn State and Illinois.

"They are a fast-paced team, they get the ball out and go. We have to get back, stop the ball and make them play against our 1-3-1 zone."
--Michael Thompson, NW sophomore guard

The first step is believing. The next is going out and doing it.

Around the Big Ten
1) Michigan Destroyed by Penn State 73-58 - Michigan's insistence to jack up threes is ridiculous. They started this game with 8 three-ball attempts in the first three and a half minutes. They finished 5-30 from behind the arc while DeShawn Sims was dominating inside. Sims finished with 21 points and 11 rebounds on 10-14 shooting. Hopefully Michigan will continue to ignore Sims when we play them down in Ann Arbor.

Michigan's current 3-game skid is starting to make Brian Ellerbe and Tommy Amaker proud. Could they be going into their typical January and February disappearing act? No way this Michigan team misses the tournament this year right? I knew I shouldn't have picked them to finished third in the conference.

2) Illinois Handled Ohio State - Illinois had their typical balanced scoring act while Ohio State had difficulty taking care of the ball. The Buckeyes finished with a season high 20 turnovers. BJ Mullens finished with 14 points on 6-8 shooting.

Email:
"Why didn't you comment on the Arkansas's hiring of John L. Smith as special teams coordinator?"
--Jon from Owosso, MI

Well, I indeed did know about it. I just didn't know if I should put it into the blog or not. It's pretty ironic that John L. Smith got this gig as a special teams coordinator. I hope he doesn't "screw it up."



Tomorrow - Northwestern Post Game

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