Odds and Ends

College Basketball Notes
1) Illinois Wins a Game We Can't - I happened to catch the Illinois/Northwestern game on Thursday night and I had mixed feelings on it. Going into the game, I wasn't really pulling for either team. An Illinois victory would be better for the conference in general, but if Northwestern could pull off the upset, it might help MSU more since the Illini are tied for second place and we have yet to play them again. Well, you know how that game turned out. Illinois made a dramatic comeback on clutch shooting and stifling defense that created multiple Northwestern turnovers late in the game. All I could think to myself was, why couldn't we do that when we played the Wildcats? Lake the Posts (NW Blogger) says that this was the most painful loss NW has ever endured. It seems pretty drastic to me, but then again it is Northwestern.
2) Media Members Give Spartans #2 Seed in Mock Selection Committee Meeting - The mock process involved 20 media members who spent 12 hours simulating what the actual selection committee does during the week preceding March Madness. The article is here. Their final pairings had Michigan State as the #2 seed in the Midwest Regional with a potential matchup against #1 seed Pittsburg. This blogger likes everything about this. First of all, they would play in Indianapolis and secondly, if they could get to the final, it should be a rematch of last year's second round game.
Other interesting things that came from the meeting were how Michigan was left out, the number of teams from a particular conference doesn't matter, and Greg Doyle of CBS thinks that Davidson should have an edge over other mid-majors because of their dramatic run last year in the tournament.
3. Big Ten Coaches Best in the NCAA Tournament? - Check out this blog from the Big Ten Geeks. Through their analysis, the Big Ten coaches outperform all other coaches when it comes to the post-season. They were followed by the Big East, the ACC, and then the SEC. It's worth checking out.

That's Ridiculous
1) Joaquin Phoenix on Letterman- Yeah, it's old, but if you didn't see the clip, check it out at the bottom of this post. This is what we can expect from Michael Phelps in a few years.
2) Falcons Will Trade the Rights to Michael Vick - I'm sure that the Don King of dog fighting will get another shot in the NFL, but I don't expect any teams to trade for him. What would you offer for him? Maybe Al Davis will try to trade his new coach for Vick, similar to how he traded Jon Gruden in 2002.
3) "Tim Tebow Will Kick the Living **** Out of a Defensive Lineman" - This is a quote from Jon Gruden in his first interview since being fired by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The only way that Jesus would "kick the **** out of a defensive lineman" would be if Satan himself suited up. He later went on to say that Tebow is the "wildcat" with an arm, which is a pretty good take. You can find the entire article here.

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Reality Check

Northwestern did the unthinkable Wednesday night by winning in East Lansing for the first time since 1984. Led by Kevin Coble's 31 points, the Wildcats relied on clutch three point shooting and their pressure 1-3-1 defense to overcome Michigan State's athleticism 70-63.

Player of the Game - Kevin Coble 31 points on 10-16 shooting.

Why Northwestern Won:
1) Points Off of Turnovers - Once again, it wasn't the number of turnovers that killed MSU in this game. It was Northwestern's effectiveness in turning these turnovers into points on the other end. The Wildcats turned 18 Michigan State turnovers into 27 points. That's almost 40% of their total points! Then, add in the fact that Northwestern only had 7 turnovers themselves and that is a recipe for disaster.
2) Clutch Outside Shooting - As a team, the Wildcats shot below their season average with regards to three point percentage at 32%. The key, however, was the timing of their threes. Whenever they needed a big basket, the Wildcats cashed in a three from near the hash mark. The back-to-back threes by Craig Moore and Michael Thompson with 6:31 remaining were especially clutch as they put the Wildcats up for good.
3) Kevin Coble - He went Drew Neitzel versus Wisconsin two years ago in the very same building. Whatever he chucked even near the basket was destined to go in. There was no stopping him on this night.
4) Poor Michigan State 3-Pt Shooting - If you compare the two games' box scores, the biggest difference between last night and the earlier meeting was our three-point shooting. In the first contest we finished 9-16 from behind the arc for 56%. Last night we shot less than 25% going 5-21. You can't credit all of this to Northwestern's defense either. Many of our attempts from beyond the arc were open looks that we just couldn't convert into points.
5) Excellent Coaching - Bill Carmody has done an excellent job with this team. They take care of the ball extremely well and play great pressure defense. Although I disagree with giving essentially the entire Wildcat team the green light to shoot anywhere on the floor, it might be the only way Northwestern is able to beat a team like Michigan State.

What Went Well for MSU:
1) Goran Suton - Despite not getting the ball enough, Suton managed to pull down a double-double and finished with 15 points and 14 rebounds. Although he still got beat a few times on the perimeter, he played solidly overall.
2) Free Throws - The Spartans finished 20-24 from the charity stripe lead by Suton's 9-11 performance. Can you imagine what this game would have been like if MSU shot their season average 68%?
3) Rebounding - Michigan State again outrebounded Northwestern in this contest with a +16 margin. They were led by Goran Suton's 14 rebounds.

Coaching Mistakes
1) We Ignored Our Bigs - Obviously we thought that our outside shooting was going to win this game. Tom Izzo even said as much in the pre-game interview. So, instead of attacking the zone inside, we got into a three-point contest with a team that lives and dies by the three. As a result, Northwestern outshot us from behind the three-point line and nearly outscored us in the paint (MSU 20, NW 18). That is unacceptable.
2) Clock Management - Although I disagree with it, I can understand fouling to get into the bonus when we are down by 7 with just over two minutes. What I can' t understand is why put Northwestern on the line when they are up by three with forty-five seconds left, especially when they are in the double bonus. Just play good defense, get a stop, and then look for a three.
3) Substitutions - I'm convinced there is no rhyme or reason to Izzo's substitutions. There's no way that Raymar should have should have seen the court, let alone play nearly half the game (18 minutes). And while I am a proponent of getting Lucas and Lucious on the court together, I certainly don't want to try it out when we are losing to Northwestern in the second half.
4) X's and O's - I got a lot of grief when I started this blog and said that I thought Izzo might be the worst X's and O's coach ever. Well, this may have been an overstatement, but you can see what I mean by watching the final two minutes of last night's game. When we desperately need a basket, a structured offensive play was not to be found. We got one good look by Chris Allen from three but this wasn't even a designed play. He was just open. Instead, we got a lot of Kalin Lucas dribbling atop the key (ala Mateen) with no results.
5) Pressure Defense - I saw for a short period of time Michigan State play in-your-face pressure defense last night. The problem was that it didn't start until 2 minutes left. Izzo needs to unleash these guys and let them pressure the ball more.

Other Game Thoughts
1) This is Why People Get Down on the Izzone - What was different between this game and the Ohio State game? Nothing. That's the problem. Someone at the LSJ needs to republish that 1999 article titled "Izzone: You Stink". The entire crowd was silent until late in the second half when it really looked like Northwestern had a chance to win this game. For as many times as Izzo has said how the Breslin crowd has won games for them in the past, he should come out today and say how they lost the game for them last night.
2) Note to the BTN: Someone please tell Tom Hamilton that Chris Hill does not play for us anymore. It's Chris Allen buddy. In the pregame, Jim Jackson also referred to Kalin Lucas as Kaden Lucas.

Quotes:
"It doesn't surprise me that we didn't go undefeated like most people around here thought we would. It does surprise me that we would lose at home in this fashion."
--Tom Izzo

Coach, before losing to Northwestern, most people around here were worried that we would blow a two game lead in the conference not whether or not we would go undefeated.

"My concern is not the loss, but rather how we respond to the loss." --Tom Izzo

"We just did not get the ball inside. I need to look at doing a better job of that myself."
--Tom Izzo

That's what I'm talking about. Feed the big men. Heck, I would like to us go without shooting a single three pointer for one game just to prove a point.

"Too many turnovers by the guards and the bigs, we've got to do a better job of being focused." --Kalin Lucas

Umm......The bigs only had two turnovers. The guards had 16. You had 6 and only 2 assists.

"People think they're bad shots. They're not. They just look different." --Kevin Coble

No...they are bad shots, but they went in. Like a true scorer, Coble hasn't ever seen a shot he didn't like.

Mailbag
"You're not helping 'em Raymar, your hurting 'em......and you shouldn't be on the court"
-Kyle from Austin, TX

Nice apparent Jim Rome reference although it wasn't Morgan's fault. As John L. said "The coach that sent him in...we shouldn't have sent him in, that's a dang coaching mistake!"

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Northwestern Preview #2

Michigan State looks to beat Northwestern for the second time this year. Their previous contest featured one of Raymar Morgan's best games of the year where he went for 22 points and 13 rebounds. Today, it is uncertain whether or not Raymar Morgan will play due to an illness. Can the bench provide enough to overcome the outside shooting Wildcats? Joe Rexrode discusses it here.

Northwestern (9-6 overall, 1-4 in the conference)

Key Wins:
vs. Florida State 73-59
vs. Minnesota 74-65

Key Losses:
at Penn State 61-57
at Wisconsin 74-45
vs MSU 77-66
vs Purdue 63-61

Why Northwestern Could Win:
1. Hot shooting - We all are aware of how much Northwestern likes to shoot the three ball. In fact, 36% of all of their points this year have come from behind the arc. Craig Moore continues to be hot shooting 45% from three point land on the season. Kevin Coble can also convert from distance. If they shoot the lights out in the Breslin, we could see another overplayed BTN commercial featuring an upset of MSU.
2. Turnover Margin - Northwestern is a top the Big Ten with regards to turnover margin at +4.33. The Wildcats lead the Big Ten in steals per game averaging over 8 swipes per contest. Add that to a very efficient offense that scores on an assist 68% of the time and you have a recipe for success. If the Spartans turn the ball over like they did in the first half of the Illinois game, we will be in big trouble.
3. Look Inside More - During last matchup against MSU, Northwestern got a lot of easy buckets down low. Luckily for us, the Wildcats insisted on chucking up threes from nearly half court. If they play more disciplined and only shoot threes when they are open, they could make this a close game. Also look for them to exploit Suton's apparent lack of quickness out on the perimeter. He had a hard time defending against the drive the last time we played them probably due to his knee injury.

Why Northwestern could lose:
1. Poor Rebounding - The Wildcats are dead last in conference rebounding margin at worse than -14 per game. This is horrendous. The next worse is -4.4 per game. Look for Michigan State to dominate on the glass and probably increase their current rebounding margin of +15.
2. Lack of athleticism. If MSU gets out and running, Northwestern will have essentially no chance of winning this game. The Wildcats will need to slow it down, be patient, and run the Princeton offense effectively to beat the more athletic Spartans.
3. MSU is Shutting Down the Three in Conference - Currently Michigan State leads the Big Ten in conference 3-pt FG defense holding opponents to just under 29%. While I would hope that this is due to great Spartan defensive pressure, I'm concerned that our conference opponents have just been cold so far this year. Historically, we have not defended the three well but if we continue our current pace, we will be very successful through the end of the season.

Summary:
On paper, it appears that Michigan State will dominate nearly all aspects of this game. They should be able to dictate tempo, outrebound, and have success defending Northwestern's three point shooters without difficulty. Then, add in the fact that the game is going to be played in the Breslin Center and you have to wonder how Michigan State could possibly lose this game. Statistics do not always translate onto the court however.

The only way that Northwestern wins this game is if Coble and Moore get extremely hot and the team creates 20+ Michigan State turnovers. Don't be surprised if the Wildcats achieve one of these two goals, but I don't think both will happen. In the end, the more athletic Spartans will prevail.

Michigan State over Northwestern 72-56

Quotes:
"They're a lot different, they're going to more of those 6-7, 6-8 guys. ... They're turning people over a lot, they're a lot different team than they were, and (Craig) Moore has been pretty effective as of late. ...This is a better team than the one we played earlier, and we are, too."
--Tom Izzo on Northwestern

I agree with all of the above except for how we are a better team than when we played them earlier. Since then we have been Helter Skelter with great wins over Ohio State and Kansas, but then struggling badly against Penn State and Illinois.

"They are a fast-paced team, they get the ball out and go. We have to get back, stop the ball and make them play against our 1-3-1 zone."
--Michael Thompson, NW sophomore guard

The first step is believing. The next is going out and doing it.

Around the Big Ten
1) Michigan Destroyed by Penn State 73-58 - Michigan's insistence to jack up threes is ridiculous. They started this game with 8 three-ball attempts in the first three and a half minutes. They finished 5-30 from behind the arc while DeShawn Sims was dominating inside. Sims finished with 21 points and 11 rebounds on 10-14 shooting. Hopefully Michigan will continue to ignore Sims when we play them down in Ann Arbor.

Michigan's current 3-game skid is starting to make Brian Ellerbe and Tommy Amaker proud. Could they be going into their typical January and February disappearing act? No way this Michigan team misses the tournament this year right? I knew I shouldn't have picked them to finished third in the conference.

2) Illinois Handled Ohio State - Illinois had their typical balanced scoring act while Ohio State had difficulty taking care of the ball. The Buckeyes finished with a season high 20 turnovers. BJ Mullens finished with 14 points on 6-8 shooting.

Email:
"Why didn't you comment on the Arkansas's hiring of John L. Smith as special teams coordinator?"
--Jon from Owosso, MI

Well, I indeed did know about it. I just didn't know if I should put it into the blog or not. It's pretty ironic that John L. Smith got this gig as a special teams coordinator. I hope he doesn't "screw it up."



Tomorrow - Northwestern Post Game

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Northwestern Preview

The Spartans look to follow up their impressive win over Minnesota with a victory at Northwestern today.

Northwestern (8-3 overall, 0-1 in the conference)

Key Wins:
vs. Florida State 73-59

Key Losses:
at Butler 57-53
at Stanford 65-59
at Penn State 61-57

Why they could win:
1. Statistically, they are playing really good defense. The Wildcats lead the conference in scoring defense allowing only 53.8 ppg. They are holding opponents to 39% shooting from the field which is second in the Big Ten, but 24th nationally. They are also second to Purdue in the Big Ten with regards to turnover margin with a +3.8 value.
2. Hot shooting. So far this season, the Wildcats are shooting 40% from behind the arc. Their best three point shooters are Kevin Coble and Craig Moore. They are shooting 40% and 47% respectively. Mix that in with the fact that Michigan State is notoriously bad at defending the three and this could be trouble. Northwestern is also making nearly 48% of their two-point shots.
3. Inspired play. Not only are the Wildcats playing to save the job of Bill Carmody, they also could be motivated by Craig Moore eclipsing the 1000 career point mark. This will most likely happen during the game.

Why Northwestern could lose:
1. Poor rebounding. Despite holding teams to poor FG percentages, the Wildcats are not rebounding very well, especially on the defensive end. They even rank worse than Minnesota with regards to cleaning the glass.
2. Lack of athleticism. If MSU gets out and running, Northwestern will have essentially no chance of winning this game. The Wildcats will need to slow it down, be patient, and run the Princeton offense effectively to beat the more athletic Spartans.
3. Their defense is likely overrated. Although statistically the Wildcats look amazingly competitive on the defensive end, their numbers are likely overinflated due to their lack of quality opponents. They are 0-3 against teams ranked in the top 50, but have played them all on the road and were extremely competitive in every game.

Summary:
This contest has all of the hallmarks of being a trap game. The Spartans are coming off of their best performance this season and face the perennial doormat of the Big Ten in Northwestern on the road. But this Northwestern team on paper appears to be cut from a different cloth. They are shooting the ball very well and forcing their opponents to take bad shots. The key to the game will be how do these stats translate against the most athletic team they have seen all season.

In the end, I see the Spartans coming home with the victory, but unimpressively. It will be a grind it out game and the Wildcats will hang around because of excellent three point shooting.

MSU over Northwestern 68-61.

Quotes:

"There has to be a point in time, and the last couple years we haven't found it, where players realize that every single game is important if you are trying to win a conference championship" -Tom Izzo in a LSJ article found here.

Email:

"Hey SpartyBasketball, I could not disagree with you more about Dahlman. I think that Izzo needs to find a way to consistently get him on the floor. I think that he is long and more athletic than most people think. He could contribute to this team greatly."

-Chris, Lansing

Again with the Dahlman thing? Once again, he's a nice kid and I do not have anything against him. If I met him, I am sure that we would get a long well. The problem is that he just isn't a good basketball player. I have no idea how you would know how athletic Dahlman is. You definitely have not seen it during an actual game. Maybe you have been to some practices or and saw something that none of us have? In the end, I think Dahlman needs to stay on the bench but I don't think that this is going to happen. I am sure that Izzo will give him some unexpected PT sometime throughout the season. When he does, I can only hope that he comes through and proves me wrong.

Tomorrow: Northwestern Post Game.

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Big Ten Preview Part 1

Today, I will run down what I think will be the bottom four teams in the conference.

10. Indiana 5-7
We all knew that they were going to be bad, but I'm not sure we knew it would be like this. While it is common knowledge that they lost most of their team last year, including all 5 starters, most people don't realize that their freshman class was pretty typical for IU. Sure, they lost Devin Ebanks and Terrell Holloway, but they still had a very strong incoming class. They were led by Tom Pritchard who was a teammate of Delvon Roe and led their high school team to the Ohio State Championship game without him. They also got Devon Dumes via the JUCO route who was going to go to Ohio State before Ebanks and Holloway decomitted. These two guys have become the leaders of this young team.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) They could out hustle the Spartans. Coach Crean is a great motivator and he has them playing with 100% effort.
2) MSU could play down to the level of their opponents.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) They are inexperienced, lack chemistry, and are just not physically mature.
2) They lost to Lipscomb and Northeastern at home

Projected record: 2-16


10. Northwestern 8-2
This may be Bill Carmody's final year at Northwestern after he has failed to live up to the high expectations he brought to Evanston 8 years ago. His best finish in the Big Ten has been tied for 5th in 2003 and even then he only went 8-8. His team has been off to a pretty good start this year although most of their wins have been against cupcakes. When facing teams in the top 50, they are 0-2 but have had impressive outings in each of these games on the road. During Carmody's tenure, Northwestern has had similar records as they do now and then go onto win 2 or 3 games the rest of the entire season. I don't see it being any different this year. I think they will split with Indiana and then also pick up an unexpected win somewhere in the regular season.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) They could catch us playing to the level of the competition
2) Bill Carmody needs some big wins this season

Why they won't beat MSU: Because they are Northwestern and we are Michigan State. Evan Eschmeyer isn't walking through that door anytime soon.

Projected Record: 2-16


9. Iowa - 10-3
Todd Lickliter has his team off to a solid start so far this season. This will be his second tour through the Big Ten after a miserable year last year. The Hawkeyes have played a pretty balanced schedule with some quality opponents like West Virginia, Boston College, Kansas State and Drake. The problem is that they only won one of these games. Their schedule will only get tougher as conference play begins and I don't see this year being much better than last.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) Good three point shooting. So far they are shooting over 40% from three lead by freshmen Anthony Tucker and Matt Gatens.
2) Over Officiating. They are shooting over 74% as a team from the free throw line.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) Inexperience. The top two scorers, Tucker and Gatens, are both freshman and Cyrus Tate is not having the senior year that many expected. He is only averaging 7 points and 7 boards a game.

Predicted Record: 4- 14


8. Penn State 11-2
It doesn't feel right to move Penn State all the way up to 8, but I have one reason: Talor Battle. He has reached double figures in every game this year and is averaging 19 ppg. He also has 5.5 apg along with 5.6 rpg. That is amazing even despite their lack of quality opponents. Maybe Talor Battle can lead the Nittany Lions to the promise land. I doubt it.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) A strong individual performance from Talor Battle
2) They could catch us playing to the level of the competition
3) Because they somehow did it last year

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) Lack of athletes
2) Lack of experience

Projected Record: 6-10

Other Notes:
1) Anthony Crater is transferring out of Ohio State. Apparently he wasn't happy with his role as a back up point gaurd for the Buckeyes. "Noopy" is from Flint and attended Flint SouthWestern through his junior year, but then transferred to a high school in New Hampshire during his senior year. Many Spartan fans wanted him to wear the green and white, but somehow Ohio State landed him. Unfortunately for him, there's no room on this squad for a back up PG. Kalin Lucas is the now and Korie Lucious is the future. Maybe Crater will go to Mott Community College. They win national championships there.

2) Eric Devendorf has been reinstated. Apparently, if you spend 40 hours picking up trash, you get a free pass to punch a woman of your choice in the face. We are so glad that this guy stiffarmed MSU during his junior year by decommitting and eventually going to Syracuse. I could not have dealt with another high profile recruit that didn't live up to expectations. Especially some guy from Bay City.

3)Maurice Joseph is not tearing it up at Vermont. Although he just had his best game as a Catamount with 18 pts, he is averaging just 8.7 ppg. He has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1:2.8. Yeah, that isn't written backwards. 1:2.8!!!! Interestingly enough, he isn't getting much more playing time than he did at MSU (23 min/game vs. 16). In the end, I think both he and MSU are better off apart. I can't deal with Raymar's turnovers as it is, let alone MoJo's. I do miss the Rec Specs though.

Tomorrow: Big Ten Preview Part 2.

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