Big Ten Preview Part 3

3. Michigan 10-2
Just when God blessed all Spartan fans with Rich Rodriguez, he had to start what appears to be a dramatic turnaround to the Michigan basketball program. At 10-2, the Wolverines have already matched their win total from one year ago. John Beilein has this team playing well on both sides of the ball lead by Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. The "Detroit Connection", as they are being promoted by the U of M athletic department, has become one of the best inside-out duos not only in the conference, but nationally. It's difficult to say what has sparked this tremendous turnaround so far this season. I directly attribute it to the dramatic improvement of Sims during the offseason. He has essentially doubled his rebounding average this year and increased his scoring average from 12 to 17 ppg. If he were to keep on this pace through conference play, he would be the conference player of the year.

I would love to say that Michigan's success has been against lackluster competition, but this is not the case. Unlike many recent Michigan teams that have had hot starts, the '08 Wolverines have the most impressive wins among all of the Big Ten teams. They beat UCLA convincingly early in the season at MSG and eventually split a rare non-conference pair of games with Duke beating them at home. Non-believers would argue that UCLA isn't that good and that the Duke game was a fluke. I could see that argument.

Why they can beat MSU:
1) The 1-3-1 Defense. After watching the UCLA game, it was obvious how the 1-3-1 was dramatically improved. Beilein has extended it to nearly half court and it has a very high pressure presence. The first thing I thought of was that this is the type of defense that has plagued the Spartans for a decade. I can see us turning the ball over a ton.
2) The "Detroit Connection" could get hot. Let's be honest, the Spartans wanted both of these guys and couldn't get it done. They are tremendous players that could take over a game against anyone in the country.
3) Laval Lucas-Perry is now playing. I was skeptical that he would contribute the way Wolverine fans thought that he would, but so far, he has scored in double figures every game.
4) Superior FT shooting. As a team, they are shooting over 80% from the line. Mix that in with the only game at Crysler this year and we are in trouble.

Why MSU will win:
1) We have a deeper bench. We don't clutter our bench with brothers of overhyped football players or former transfers from Rutgers. We will hopefully wear out the starters for the Wolverines and get some cheap baskets.
2) Better rebounding. Aside from Sims, the Wolverines are average rebounders at best. This is one of our strengths and we will exploit it.
3) We will exploit their defense. Michigan has been efficient on offense, but not on the defensive end. Currently their defense is ranked 136 nationally in Pomeroy rankings. They will have to improve on this to beat the Spartans.
4) Izzo is a better coach. While Beilein is approaching 500 wins, Izzo has the clear advantage.

In the end, I was hesitant to place the Wolverines so high in my rankings. They could very easily finish as low as 8th in the conference. They could also win it all. I'll hope for the fomer, rather than the latter.

Predicted Record: 11-5


1. Purdue (Tie) 11-3
Unlike last year, Purdue has the bullseye on their back as the conference favorite. My heart tells me that they won't live up to the hype since they will not be surprising anyone this year, but my mind tells me that they are really good. What impresses me most about Purdue is their great pressure defense that causes a lot of turnovers. They lead the Big Ten with a +6 turnover margin and are second in steals. Defense is the staple of this team and should provide a great deal of consistency throughout the year.

Offense will be the limiting factor for the Boilermakers this year. Although they have the capability to put points on the board, I don't know how well they will respond when everyone knows they have been picked to win the conference. So far this year, Robbie Hummel has continued to be a force averaging 14 points and nearly 8 rebounds per game. E'twaun Moore on the other hand has struggled somewhat so far this season. While his ppg are up, his shooting percentage is down. He shot nearly 44% from three point land one year ago and is currently shooting 32%. In order for them to be a contender for the conference title, he will have to play better.

Why they can beat MSU:
1. Aggresive defense. Like I said about Michigan's 1-3-1, Purdue plays an aggressive, in your face defense that has historically given MSU problems. I have faith in Kalin Lucas' ability to break their full court pressure, but I am unsure about the rest of the Spartans. I think that Lucious has the ability to push the ball up, but he is only a freshman and that is a lot to ask.
2. Hummel, Moore, and Johnson. These guys have the capability to put big numbers up in a hurry. If they get hot offensively, Purdue's defense will carry them to a victory.

Why MSU can beat them:
1. An efficient offense. If we play to our potential, I think we are capable of putting big numbers up on anyone.
2. Superior rebounding. As a team, we are better rebounders although JuJuan Johnson is a force individually. We will need all the second chance points we can get.
3. Deeper Bench. We can legitimately play 9 or 10 deep and with Purdue's style of play, I anticipate both teams needing to go to role players due to foul trouble.

Predicted Record: 14-4

1. Michigan State (Tie) 9-2
It is very hard for me to put the Spartans on top this year. Mainly because they have consistently let me down during conference play throughout this entire decade. Certainly I think that winning a share of the conference is a lofty prediction, especially with the way they have played so far. I know they were picked by the media and coaches to finish second, but like every other year, this is because of our success during the previous year's NCAA tournament and how we were returning most of our starters. This team is not playing as well as a #10 ranking suggests.

Keys to success:
1) Chris Allen needs to find his shot. He is really struggling right now to find his shot. His defense is weak as it is so if he isn't hitting shots, he might as well not be on the floor. He also is the only true three point shooter we have. I don't buy Summers being a legitimate threat from the perimeter although he has shot the ball well from distance so far this year.
2) Raymar Morgan needs to be consistent. No more dissappearing in big games. No more travelling in transition. He needs to continue to pound the ball inside and stay away from perimeter shots.
3) Limit turnovers. I was surprised to see that MSU is only average among Big Ten teams in turnovers and turnover margin. It seems like they have taken care of the ball better this year, but the statistics do not show this. It's probably because in recent years, their turnovers have been ridiculously high so now when they are average, I think they are doing well.
4) Lucas needs to be a consistent penetrator. Hopefully the Oakland game is the turning point for him and he starts to find his shot. If he can add some scoring to his terrific assist/turnover ratio, we will have a great shot at winning this league.
5) Avoid injuries. The conference season is off to a rough start with Roe on the bench probably for the first two games. Like everyone in the Big Ten, this team will need everyone to be 100% in order to win.
6) Consistent Rebounding. The Spartans lead the conference in rebounding margin with +7. This is solid and slightly exceeds my expectations since we don't have a dominant rebounder. We clean up on the boards because of Izzo's philosophy more than anything.

Predicted Record: 14-4


Later Today: Minnesota Preview.

Big Ten Preview Part 2

7. Illinois 12-1
Statistically, Illinois is the most well balanced team in the Big Ten so far this year. On offense, they are shooting almost 49% from the field and nearly 40% from three. They lead the nation in assist percentage at 72% and are not turning the ball over. On the other side of the ball, they have shut down their opponents and are ranked 5th nationally in scoring defense. Only Clemson has scored more than 64 points against them. The Tigers were also the only team to shoot higher than 46% from the field against the Illini.

After all of that, one would think that Illinois is unbeatable. But, Bruce Webber has his work cut out for him from here on out. The Illini have a brutal Big Ten schedule that is terribly front loaded. In their first six games, they travel to Purdue, play Michigan twice, at MSU, and at home against Ohio State. That is tough. If Illinois is going to have a breakout year, they will have to be successful early on in conference play.

Why they can beat MSU:
1) MSU can't win at Illinois. Izzo rarely wins in front of the Orange Crush. Last year was the exception.
2) They have the ability to hit shots
3) They are playing great defense
4) Great coaching

Why they will lose to MSU:
1) They have to play at the Breslin
2) I question their ability to rebound (although they are outrebounding opponents right now)
3) They lack depth

Predicted Record: 8-10


6. Minnesota 12-0
It is probably a stretch to put the Golden Gophers this high, but they are undefeated and have an excellent coach in Tubby Smith. Of course, they haven't really played anyone either. Even their win over Louisville is probably overvalued as I don't think that the Cardinals are that good. Nonetheless, the Gophers' success thus far has been great for the conference but I don't expect it to last. I don't think that they can continue scoring over 75 points per game in the Big Ten. I think that they will have a good year for Minnesota and may sneek into the tournament.

Why they can beat MSU:
1) Momentum. They start the Big Ten season in The Barn against the Spartans and are riding one of the best winning streaks that they have seen in recent years. Tubby will have his boys ready to play.
2) Ability to score. So far the Gophers are averaging 75 points per game which is second in the Big Ten. I don't think that this will last in conference play, but it could
3) Good coaching. Everyone knows Tubby Smith is an elite coach. Just not the University of Kentucky.
4) Shot Blocking. They lead the Big Ten in blocked shots with more than 7 per game.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) Suspect Defense. They have not been shutting down teams defensively so far this year despite their cupcake schedule. They will have to force more turnovers and rebound better to beat quality opponents.
2) Lack of athleticism.

Predicted Record: 9-9


5. Wisconsin 12-3
With their success during the Bo Ryan era, I consider the Badgers to be our most intense, recent rival. They probably don't look at it that way since they have pretty much dominated us during that time. While most Spartans hate Bo Ryan, you have to respect this guy's ability to coach. Unlike Izzo, he rarely has a team favored to win the Big Ten, but seems to seriously contend for the conference title year in and year out. So far, the Badgers have been quiet on the national stage. They do not have a win against a quaility opponent, but played the Texas and Marquette close. They were blown out by UConn earlier in the year.

It's hard for me to predict Wisconsin finishing fifth in the conference, but that is just the way it shook out. If not for what I think is the easiest Big Ten schedule, I might have put them even lower. Maybe it is because subconsciously that is where I want them to finish. My argument is that they don't have any quality wins so far and that they aren't rebounding the ball as well as they normally do. It is not inconceivable that they end up winning the Big Ten, but I prefer not to think that way.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) Bo Ryan owns Tom Izzo. Like it or not, it is fact. The best part of this is that they obviously don't like each other. When they both get old and senile, I could see them going John Chaney on each other.
2) Experience. Landry and Krabbenhoft have been there for freakin' ever! When will they leave? Travon Hughes is also an excellent leader as a junior and Jason Bohannon was the Sixth Man of the year last year.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) They do not play the Spartans in Madison this year. That sucks for them, but is even better for us. It's difficult for us to win there.
2) Turnovers. Although the Badgers are known for taking care of the ball, their turnover margin this year is essentially zero and ranks 10th in the Big Ten so far. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during conference play.
3) Poor transition game. Wisconsin is better at grinding games out and if we can score in transition, I don't think they have a chance.

Predicted Record: 10-6


4. Ohio State 9-1
In contrast to Wisconsin, I was hesitant to place the Buckeyes fourth in my conference preview. Despite quality wins at Miami, at home against Butler, and against Notre Dame in a neutral site game, I do not have a ton of confidence in the way this team is playing. When I break down each of these games, I see flaws. At Miami, their best player gets kicked out for being an idiot and swinging at Anthony Crater. They barely got past Butler at home which is a good team, but not as good as they have been the last two years. They beat Notre Dame without Harongody and then most importantly of all, West Virginia went UNC on them this past weekend at home.
There is not doubt that the athleticism is there in Columbus, but how far will that get them. I don't think that their players have polished their skills enough to seriously contend for the Big Ten title. They will win some games against the league's best teams, but I don't think that they will do it consistently.

Why they can beat the Spartans:
1) Athleticism. I think they are the most athletic team in the Big Ten. Evan Turner has been dominate so far this year. He probably won't be around next year.
2) BJ Mullins could step his game up and be the big time recruit that he was supposed to be. It hasn't happened so far.
3) Defense. They are playing pretty well on the defensive end so far this year. They are only giving up 55 ppg and WV was the only team to hit for 70 or more this year against them.

Why they won't beat the Spartans:
1) Inconsistency.
2) Lack of depth.

Predicted Record: 12-6

MSU Related News:
1) Delvon Roe Doubtful. He probably won't play for MSU at The Barn on Wednesday. Ideally, I would like to go to a small line up, putting Morgan at the PF position, and play a three gaurd lineup with Lucas, Walton, and Allen. But, since Allen is struggling, I think I would put Summers at the SF. Izzo may opt to stay big and put Marquise in at the PF which would be fine, but you never know what he is going to give you.

2.) Spartans ranked No. 10 in AP; No. 15 in ESPN/USA Today. Although I don't think that we are playing as well as a top 10 team should, I take comfort in the fact that Texas is more overrated than we are. We will see if we live up to our ranking on Wednesday.

Quotes:

"We're making progress as we get guys back. And if there is a team that is prepared for road games, it should be us." -Tom Izzo on Wednesday's matchup against Minnesota.

-Okay coach. I'll hold you to this although we have had more difficult non-conference schedules in the past with better Spartan teams that didn't translate to success on the road. He must be counting the games at Ford Field and The Palace as being away games.

Tomorrow: Big Ten Preview Part 3 and Preview of Minnesota.

Big Ten Preview Part 1

Today, I will run down what I think will be the bottom four teams in the conference.

10. Indiana 5-7
We all knew that they were going to be bad, but I'm not sure we knew it would be like this. While it is common knowledge that they lost most of their team last year, including all 5 starters, most people don't realize that their freshman class was pretty typical for IU. Sure, they lost Devin Ebanks and Terrell Holloway, but they still had a very strong incoming class. They were led by Tom Pritchard who was a teammate of Delvon Roe and led their high school team to the Ohio State Championship game without him. They also got Devon Dumes via the JUCO route who was going to go to Ohio State before Ebanks and Holloway decomitted. These two guys have become the leaders of this young team.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) They could out hustle the Spartans. Coach Crean is a great motivator and he has them playing with 100% effort.
2) MSU could play down to the level of their opponents.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) They are inexperienced, lack chemistry, and are just not physically mature.
2) They lost to Lipscomb and Northeastern at home

Projected record: 2-16


10. Northwestern 8-2
This may be Bill Carmody's final year at Northwestern after he has failed to live up to the high expectations he brought to Evanston 8 years ago. His best finish in the Big Ten has been tied for 5th in 2003 and even then he only went 8-8. His team has been off to a pretty good start this year although most of their wins have been against cupcakes. When facing teams in the top 50, they are 0-2 but have had impressive outings in each of these games on the road. During Carmody's tenure, Northwestern has had similar records as they do now and then go onto win 2 or 3 games the rest of the entire season. I don't see it being any different this year. I think they will split with Indiana and then also pick up an unexpected win somewhere in the regular season.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) They could catch us playing to the level of the competition
2) Bill Carmody needs some big wins this season

Why they won't beat MSU: Because they are Northwestern and we are Michigan State. Evan Eschmeyer isn't walking through that door anytime soon.

Projected Record: 2-16


9. Iowa - 10-3
Todd Lickliter has his team off to a solid start so far this season. This will be his second tour through the Big Ten after a miserable year last year. The Hawkeyes have played a pretty balanced schedule with some quality opponents like West Virginia, Boston College, Kansas State and Drake. The problem is that they only won one of these games. Their schedule will only get tougher as conference play begins and I don't see this year being much better than last.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) Good three point shooting. So far they are shooting over 40% from three lead by freshmen Anthony Tucker and Matt Gatens.
2) Over Officiating. They are shooting over 74% as a team from the free throw line.

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) Inexperience. The top two scorers, Tucker and Gatens, are both freshman and Cyrus Tate is not having the senior year that many expected. He is only averaging 7 points and 7 boards a game.

Predicted Record: 4- 14


8. Penn State 11-2
It doesn't feel right to move Penn State all the way up to 8, but I have one reason: Talor Battle. He has reached double figures in every game this year and is averaging 19 ppg. He also has 5.5 apg along with 5.6 rpg. That is amazing even despite their lack of quality opponents. Maybe Talor Battle can lead the Nittany Lions to the promise land. I doubt it.

Why they could beat MSU:
1) A strong individual performance from Talor Battle
2) They could catch us playing to the level of the competition
3) Because they somehow did it last year

Why they won't beat MSU:
1) Lack of athletes
2) Lack of experience

Projected Record: 6-10

Other Notes:
1) Anthony Crater is transferring out of Ohio State. Apparently he wasn't happy with his role as a back up point gaurd for the Buckeyes. "Noopy" is from Flint and attended Flint SouthWestern through his junior year, but then transferred to a high school in New Hampshire during his senior year. Many Spartan fans wanted him to wear the green and white, but somehow Ohio State landed him. Unfortunately for him, there's no room on this squad for a back up PG. Kalin Lucas is the now and Korie Lucious is the future. Maybe Crater will go to Mott Community College. They win national championships there.

2) Eric Devendorf has been reinstated. Apparently, if you spend 40 hours picking up trash, you get a free pass to punch a woman of your choice in the face. We are so glad that this guy stiffarmed MSU during his junior year by decommitting and eventually going to Syracuse. I could not have dealt with another high profile recruit that didn't live up to expectations. Especially some guy from Bay City.

3)Maurice Joseph is not tearing it up at Vermont. Although he just had his best game as a Catamount with 18 pts, he is averaging just 8.7 ppg. He has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1:2.8. Yeah, that isn't written backwards. 1:2.8!!!! Interestingly enough, he isn't getting much more playing time than he did at MSU (23 min/game vs. 16). In the end, I think both he and MSU are better off apart. I can't deal with Raymar's turnovers as it is, let alone MoJo's. I do miss the Rec Specs though.

Tomorrow: Big Ten Preview Part 2.

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