Illinois Preview and DVD Giveaway

Illinois (23-6 overall, 11-5 in conference)

Why Illinois Could Win:
1) Defense - The Illini currently lead the Big Ten in scoring defense allowing just over 55 points per game within the conference. They are holding their opponents to less than 39% shooting which also leads the Big Ten.
2) Efficient Passing - Illinois tops the conference in both assists and in assist-to-turnover ratio. They are also converting on more than 44% of their shots from the field.
3) Turnovers - The Illini don't really create a lot of turnovers, but they also don't turn the ball over themselves very much. Currently they are third in the league at +1.4. Any team that is has a margin over 0 could be trouble for Michigan State.
4) Home Court Advantage - Last year's victory at Illinois marked Michigan State's first win at Assembly Hall since 2002. Within that streak, we have had some miserable losses including the 2003 70-40 drubbing. I personally hate it when we play there, but I think that Orange Krush is great. If not for anything else, I like the orange shirts. It's better than plain white. The Izzone needs to go back to green by the way. Bring back the 1998 XLs with the huge neck holes for everyone to where.

Keys to a Michigan State Victory:
1) Efficient Offense - The scary part of going over the first Illinois game was how we actually shot okay against them, but yet the game was still close. In the first contest, MSU finished shooting 40% from the field. Tomorrow, we will need a similarly good percentage to assure a victory. We won't be able to rely solely on defense like we have in the past because Illinois has a great defense to. I know it is rocket science, but in order to beat teams, you have to score more points that the other guy. We will probably need to open things up a little bit on the break and if it's not there, we will have to pound it inside.
2) Rebounds - We dominated the first game in this area with a 42-30 edge. They did manage 12 offensive boards, however, and this was when we had a healthy Raymar Morgan.
3) Limit Turnovers - Obviously. The first matchup between these two teams was when our turnover problem first became exposed. We had 18 total and luckily, the Illini had an uncharacteristic 18 themselves. We can't have 18 again.
4) Bench - We will need someone from the bench to step up for us. In the last game, we got a great spark from Marquis Gray with 11 points in 15 minutes. Who is going to step up for us in this game?

Summary:
Tomorrow's game could be a defining moment for this Michigan State basketball team. They are facing a team that is sitting in second place within the conference and are going into a hostile environment to play for at least a share of the conference title. A win here and the Spartans would create some momentum that could potentially lead to a string of victories and even allow us to sneak into a number one seed if other teams were to lose.

The task at hand, however, is not easy. Traditionally, the Spartans don't play well down at Assembly Hall and the Illini have only lost two games at home so far. They even blew Purdue out earlier in the year in front of the Orange Krush.

For much of the Big Ten season, our offense has not been clicking. We haven't shot the ball very well and in the last four games, we haven't eclipsed the 70-point mark a single time. We also continue to turn the ball over carelessly despite Coach Izzo saying after every game how they are working on it. The failure to improve in these two areas leads me to go with the Illini in this matchup, especially at Assembly Hall.

Illinois over Michigan State 64-51

Other Michigan State Notes
1) Izzo Backtracking On Shaving His Head - Apparently, at the beginning of the season, Izzo said that he would shave his head if we won the Big Ten regular season title in light of the players cutting their own hair. Now he says that he will probably do it if they win it outright. If he was to do this, I would be shocked. It is so Bruce Pearl-ish, but I think it would be funny. He would get a lot of national attention for doing so, which might even help us out a smidge.
2) Durrell Summers Ankle is Fine - He practiced yesterday and should be ready to go for tomorrow.

Quotes
"Yeah, the door's been opened wider, but I want to win coming through the front door, not the back door."
--Tom Izzo after Purdue's loss to Michigan

Most of us would agree with this statement, but I must caution everyone that we definitely could lose to Indiana. Yeah, Indiana. They are a great rebounding team and in the first half of our game earlier this year, they played us very tough. The game was closer than the 75-57 score indicated. If for nothing else, we should be worried because I will be in attendance at that game. Michigan State athletics is 3-9 in games that I attend in the state of Indiana.

DVD Giveaway
I am giving away a free DVD of "The Greatest Stories of Michigan State Basketball" complements of Genius products to the reader with the closest prediction for Sunday's game at Illinois. Either post a comment to the website or send me an email with your prediction, the margin of victory and the total points. Who ever picks the correct team and has the closest margin of victory will win a free copy. Total points will be used for any tiebreakers.

So far, I don't have that many entries, so your chances of winning are really good.

Tomorrow: Illinois Post Game (probably a few hours after the game)

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Michigan Preview

The Spartans head down to their little' sisters house tonight to try and extend their lead over second place Purdue to three games. It's a big game for Michigan also as they are coming off of their annual January collapse and are in danger of not making the NCAA. Their season started off very strong as they had the most impressive non-conference resume with wins over Duke and UCLA. But, once Big Ten play started, they have struggled mightily and they will look to get it going as their biggest rival comes to town.

Michigan (15-9 Overall, 5-6 in the Big Ten)

Key Wins:
vs. UCLA 55-52 (Neutral)
vs. Duke 81-73
vs. Illinois 74-64

Key Losses:
vs. Duke 71-56 (Neutral)
at Maryland 75-70
at UConn 69-61

Why Michigan Could Win
1) Turnover Margin - Michigan currently is third in conference in regards to turnover margin at +1 per game. As we have seen so far this year, the 1-3-1 has given us trouble at times. Without question, Michigan's will be the most athletic and most difficult version that we face. Then, to top it off, the Wolverines don't really turn the ball over themselves. If Michigan State has more than 15 turnovers, I don't see how they win this game.
2) Three Point Shooting - Michigan is the definition of a team living and dying by the three. Although they rank 10th in the conference with regards to 3-pt % (30%), they also shoot more from behind the arc than any Big Ten team. In fact, so far this season, 47% of all shot Wolverine shot attempts have been three pointers. That is amazing. The large number of three point attempts that Michigan will put up combined with how hot opposing teams seem to get against Michigan State makes me nervous. If the Wolverines do not shoot well, it could be blow out city for the Spartans.
3) Free Throws - Spartan fans can only hope that this game is not decided by the referees as Michigan is second in the league when it comes to team FT% (75%). I don't think that Tom Izzo will be fouling these guys with three minutes left if we are somehow losing this game.
4. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims - Both of these guys have the potential on offense to take over a game. Manny Harris is their primary scoring option and is averaging 15.3 ppg. He also is a surprisingly good rebounder and leads the team with 7 rpg within the Big Ten. Sims is essentially their lone inside presence and has real talent. Unfortunately for him, he has seen a significant drop in his numbers since conference play has started. I think this is a combination of Michigan being too reliant on three-point shooting and him not being aggressive enough rebounding the ball. Hopefully they don't get this straightened out in time for us.

Why Michigan State Can Win:
1) Rebounding - The backbone of MSU basketball will be essential to winning this game. The Spartan's lead the league with a +13 rpg margin while the Wolverines are 7th at -1 rpg. The fact that Michigan will be playing their 1-3-1 defense makes me think that Michigan State will improve on this impressive stat even more. If we do not rebound well, we have no chance of winning.
2) Inside Presence - The Spartans clearly have an advantage over the Wolverines when it comes to points in the paint. I expect the Michigan State forwards to have their way with Michigan's 4 guard lineup. We have to exploit their lack of size down low offensively and get easy baskets. I am hoping that Marquise Gray gets significant time as this could be his last game against Michigan. He may be a liability, however, if he has to guard a smaller player on the perimeter.
3) Kalin Lucas - The thing I like most about Kalin is that whether or not he shoots well, he always impacts the game. The question is how much of an impact will he have tonight? If he can effectively run the offense and limit turnovers, we will win this game convincingly.
4) Durrell Summers/Chris Allen - If one of these guys comes to play tonight, the game is over. If both play average we will still win. But if Summers has another 0-8 night from the three point line coupled with a poor performance from Allen, we will lose miserably. As we will see through the rest of the season, our fate rests on the backs of these two young men.

Summary
For me, tonight's game comes down to whose offense is going to play better. While Michigan State's is more consistent, I think that Michigan is more capable of going off for 90 points in an intense rivalry game. If the Wolverines are fortunate enough to get out to a big lead, Michigan State must find consistent ways to counter offensively and not just rely on defense to get them back into the game.

With regards to the offenses, there are two keys to the game. The first is how well will Michigan shoot from behind the arc. If they shoot close to 40% or better, I think that it will be a long night for the Spartans. The second key will be the play of Chris Allen and Durrell Summers. As mentioned above, we need one of these guys to step up and play well in order for our offense to truly work.

In the end, I see the Spartans grinding this one out in a hostile environment that they haven't won at since 2005. I expect a big swing in the score at some point due to Michigan's streaky shooting but MSU will hold on.

Michigan State over Michigan 68-62

Other Game Notes
1) No MSU Player Has Won In Ann Arbor - Just to warn you before the announcers say this over and over tonight. This has been due more to scheduling than how good Michigan is. MSU hasn't played in Crysler Arena since 2006.
2) 97% Chance Morgan is Out Tonight - Knowing this, I will say that I there is a 100% chance that Morgan might play.
3) Travis Walton Has a Cold - He is expected to play, but revealed the illness to the LSJ today.
4) Manny Harris Can't Play D? - Dan Dackich, IU's ex-interim coach who now has a radio show in Indianapolis, told a story earlier this year about Manny Harris' lack of defense. He explained that before IU played Michigan last year, Kelvin Sampson made a highlight reel exclusively featuring Manny Harris' lack of defense. Apparently it was full of opponents breezing by Harris and Sampson told his guards that they all should have career nights against him. Obviously, Harris has gotten better on the defensive end over the last year. This is evident by his 7 rebounds per game within the conference, but I still thought that was funny. For the record, Dan Dackich blasted an email of mine on his show last week when I questioned him on whether or not he thought Izzo got too much attention nationally. Add him to the list of haters I guess.
5) Copperyale Harris - How do you get Manny from that? He must have just realized how stupid a name like Copperyale is.

Quotes
"This is still the biggest rivalry for Michigan State -- no question. I want it to be a good rivalry. Hell, the media members need something to write about. I want that for all of you."
--Tom Izzo

Hey coach, the Spartan Nation has spoken and they have said that they want Michigan to be our bitch, not our rival.

"I ain't got the Raymar, just a little stuffy nose." -- Travis Walton

God only knows what "The Raymar" is.

Tomorrow - Michigan Post Game

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Michigan State Overcomes Sloppy Play and Beats Illinois 63-57

The Spartans slid past the Fighting Illini in an ugly game that featured horrendous turnovers and poor shooting. In the end, the Spartans' solid team rebounding and good team defense carried them to the victory.

Player of the Game - Marquise Gray 11pts and 6 rebounds in 15 minutes

What went well for MSU:
1) Rebounding - Once again, MSU dominated the rebound margin 42-30. Illinois, however, did manage to grab 12 offensive rebounds, which is quite impressive. Raymar Morgan led the Spartans with 8 rebounds.
2) Marquise Gray - 'Quise played phenomenally after being inspired by the retirement of Morris Peterson's jersey. He put together one of the best stat lines of the game despite only playing 15 minutes. One has to question why he didn't play more after such a spectacular first half.
3) Perimeter Defense - As a team, the Spartans held Trent Meacham and Demetri McCamey to a combined 1-16 from the field. The entire Illini backcourt was essentially held in check with the exception of Alex Legion who had a career game.
4) Transition Game - The Illini were not ready to defend the Spartans and their quick counterattacking tendencies, especially on converted Illini baskets. Knowing that Bruce Webber is a great coach, I was really surprised to see that he didn't have his kids ready to defend the Spartans' quick transition game.
5) Goran Suton - Overall, he played pretty well. He was 5-8 from the field finishing with 12 points and 6 rebounds. He still is looking slow on the defensive end and is committing foolish fouls however.

What didn't go well for MSU:
1) Turnovers - For me, it wasn't the actually number of turnovers, it was the quality of them. In fact, the Spartans finished with 18 total which is only 4 more than their average. As Coach Izzo pointed out, the Illini only had 5 steals for the entire game, meaning that 13 of the TOs were either traveling violations or us throwing the ball away. That is outrageous.
2) Kalin Lucas - Nothing seemed to go very well for Kalin yesterday. He shot poorly going 3-13 from the field and had as many turnovers as he did assists (3). He did keep his composure, however, and convert on all four of his free throw attempts.
3) Raymar Morgan - Once again, Raymar was invisible for nearly the entire game. Sure, he had a great layup at the end of the game, but it wasn't enough to erase his lack of productivity up until that point. It certainly wasn't enough to warrant the "Raymar Morgan" chant that followed that nice play. Next time, the Izzone should get the "Raymar Morgan" chant going early in the first half so that he wakes up and realizes that he is playing in a basketball game. As a side note, Izzo explained that Raymar had the flu the night before and even joked about how we always have someone sick. How about we mix in a flu shot coach? It couldn't have affected Morgan that much as he played 31 minutes.
4) Three Point Shooting - After opening conference play with hot three point shooting, the Spartans had their second consecutive game where they shot less than 30% from beyond the arc (21.4%). It was also their second straight close game. I'm beginning to wonder whether or not Michigan State is a team that needs to rely on hot outside shooting to beat good teams.
5) The Bench - Aside from Marquise Gray, our bench played very poorly. Illinois bench outscored the Spartan reserves 32-21. Summers went for nada and two identical travel calls. Chris Allen finished 3-10 from the floor, although you could argue that he played better than his stat line shows. Lucious shined at times with a nice three pointer and a no-look pass to Gray for a slam, but this was marred by four turnovers in only 6 minutes of play.

Other Game Thoughts
1) Why Not Play Gray More - As mentioned above, Gray played spectacularly in a limited amount of time. I'm not sure why he didn't get more minutes, especially if Morgan wasn't feeling well. He could have played at the four along side of Suton and then a three guard line up. I know that Gray is a basket case, but as we saw today, his upside is tremendous. We need to find a way to regularly rotate him in so that we take full advantage of his skills.
2) Note to Doris Burke: Kalin Lucas is not Mateen - We know, Mateen was a rah-rah type of guy. Kalin Lucas is not. That doesn't make him a poor leader though. He leads by example and by dictating the offense. That is what a point guard does. They don't have pom-poms or do triple, no handed round-offs.
3) Izzone Pub - Here is a link to a Chicago Sun Times describing Illinois' troubles dealing with the Izzone.

Quotes:
"Welcome to the game Raymar Morgan" - Doris Burke after Raymar scored his first FG with 9:41 left in the second half

"We snuck one out we probably didn't deserve" - Tom Izzo

"I'm not sure which I like better: playing well for 35 minutes and playing poorly down the stretch or playing poorly for 35 minutes and playing well down the stretch. I guess if you win, you have to live with either one" - Tom Izzo

"Those two [Cleaves and Peterson] hanging up there gives me a little more motivation and drives me a little more" - Marquise Gray

Tomorrow - More Illinois Post Games including my worst plays of the game.

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